SCIO briefing on China's current economic performance

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Speakers:
Yang Weimin, vice minister of the Office of Central Leading Group on Financial and Economic Affairs;
Wang Zhijun, director of Division One on Economic Affairs, the Office of Central Leading Group on Financial and Economic Affairs;
Cong Liang, director-general of the Department of National Economy, the National Development and Reform Commission;
Xing Zhihong, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director general of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the bureau

Chairperson:

Xi Yanchun, vice director-general of the Press Bureau, State Council Information Office

Date:
July 27, 2017

CCTV:

Since the second half of last year, the economy has shown signs of bottoming out. Production, prices and profit indicators are visibly picking up. One view is that these improvements still rely on real estate development and infrastructure investment. Mr. Cong, what is your opinion? Thank you.

Cong Liang:

Mr. Yang has just made a detailed evaluation on the whole economic situation. Since the 18th CPC National Congress, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council have established a judgment on the new normal of economic growth. They have steered the new normal with new concept of development, focused on improving quality and efficiency, and took supply side structural reform as the main line. Under the combined effect of these policies, some positive changes have taken place since the second half of last year. These positive changes were achieved on the basis of structural optimization. We didn't implement any powerful stimulation as was the case with Western countries. Instead, we are vigorously promoting mass entrepreneurship and innovation and revitalizing the real economy. We focus more on promoting development by speeding up structural adjustment and the conversion of old and new growth drivers, so as to achieve steady economic development.

Specifically, there are a few aspects to consider: First, the entire industrial structure has seen continuous optimization, with the service sector maintaining rapid development. From 2013 to 2016, the average annual growth of the added value for the service sector reached 8 percent, or 0.8 percentage point higher than the GDP growth rate. The service sector contributed 44.9 percent to the economic growth in 2012 and up to 58.2 percent in 2016. In the first half of this year, the service industry grew by 7.7 percent, contributing 59.1 percent to economic growth. From the point of view of proportion, service sector's added value accounted for 46.7 percent of the total in 2013 and 51.6 percent in 2016, a rise of 6.3 percentage points from 2012. In the first half of this year, its proportion increased to 54.1 percent. From an annual perspective, looking at each quarter, the contribution of the service sector might undergo a small change. However, viewed long-term, this change has been the most obvious in the last five years.

Second, the quality was improved on the basis of stability for the secondary sector. As the strategies of innovation-driven development were implemented, including the rapid advance of the "Made in China 2025" plan, as well as in-depth boost from the "Internet Plus" action plan and the construction of "Digital China," the transformation and upgrading of traditional industry was able to move ahead faster. The whole economy, especially the industrial economy, was able to maintain stable growth. Looking at the internal structure of industry, we can see that in the traditional industries - especially from the angle of cutting excessive industrial capacity - many invalid processes and products of low efficiency were reduced gradually, while the high-level and efficient parts of industry were able to play an increasingly important role. So. the supply and demand relationship of the whole market saw a relatively positive and substantial change. For example, the coal industry cut capacity totaling 290 million tons in 2016, and, since the beginning of this year, it has cut a further 111 million tons. This produced obvious easing in the excessive supply situation facing the coal market. Regarding the steel industry, in 2016, production capacity was cut by 65 million tons, while another 40 million plus tons has been eliminated so far this year. What's more, more than 100 million tons of substandard steel were prevented from being produced through bans based on safety and environmental protection standards. There was a great change in the supply and demand relationship in the entire steel industry. The industries with higher value added potential grew faster than traditional ones. Take, for instance, the equipment manufacturing industry. In 2016, its proportion was 32.9 percent, 4.7 percent more than what it was in 2012. The high-tech industry's proportion was 12.4 percent in 2016, three percent more than in 2012. So, there were relatively obvious changes in the entire supply and demand relationship, the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, as well as the development of new industries. Especially, green development saw some achievements, and the utilization efficiency of energy resources was clearly raised. The energy consumption per unit of GDP dropped by 17.9 percent in 2016 compared with 2012, and the main pollutant emissions kept decreasing. During this period, the economic aggregate kept expanding.

While the structure was optimized, there were some changes in the demand structure, and consumption has become the main force. Currently, consumption's contribution to economic growth was 63.4 percent in the last half year. Consumption's fundamental role functioned efficiently. Regarding investments, those in ecological environmental protection, education, irrigation and innovation, including the investment in technology transformation aspects, all increased by double-digit figures. So. the whole economic structure, no matter if it is about industry structure or demand structure, has seen a lot of positive changes, which also have created their own trends. Viewed from a long-term prospective, this positive trend is very clear. Thanks.

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