Panel of Experts -- W-88

With respect to this second widely reported general and specific allegation (p90) in the Cox Report of the "theft of design information for the W-88" warhead, the Panel of Experts [which had access to all the information the Cox Committee had] had only this to say: "China obtained at least basic design information on several modern US nuclear reentry vehicles, including the Trident II (W-88).(Key Findings, Appendix B)

The Panel of Experts (a) says nothing about the W-88 warhead, (b) makes no claim of "theft," and (c) its finding relates only to "reentry vehicles."

To a nuclear weapon designer, there is a vast difference between "design information for the W-88" [Cox] and "basic design information" on the Trident II "reentry vehicle" [Experts]. All that the PRC weapon designer has learned about the W-88 from getting basic design information on the Trident II reentry vehicle is that the W-88, which fits inside the reentry vehicle, must somehow fit inside it. Admittedly, it was not easy for Los Alamos to build a warhead that would fit inside the sharply conical Trident II reentry vehicle. But if the PRC bomb designer doesn't have a requirement to design a warhead that will fit inside a Trident II reentry vehicle, then the information -- even if obtained -- or how Los Alamos designers did it would be a solution to a problem he doesn't have. And so far as the Experts can tell, the PRC has no intention of developing their own version of the Trident II missile, reentry vehicle or warhead. (The low "half-angle" conical reentry vehicles for the W-88 and W-87 imply a requirement for high ballistic accuracy in their use, that is as "silo-busters" of the "hardened" Soviet ICBM sites. According to the US Intelligence Community there is no indication that the PRC intends to replicate the Soviet ICBM system. Rather, they apparently intend to make their relatively small number of ICBMs mobile to thwart a "first strike." For their retaliatory strike ICBMs, the PRC would be far more interested in getting large SZMT "city-busters," where high ballistic accuracy is not needed. Hence, even if the PRC had somehow obtained W-88 or W-87 "design information," it seems unlikely that they would have proceeded to develop and test such a device, as FBI and DOE Security officials have contended. After all, the W-88 and W-87 are optimized to fit in those low "half-angle" conical reentry vehicles, and there would be no reason for the PRC to have to make chose design compromises. Besides, the "evidence" -- apparently seismic signals from PRC underground tests -- that the PRC has tested a W-88-like device is -- to put it charitably -- "subject to interpretation," and in my opinion, most implausible.