The growth of China's exports is expected to show a substantive decline in 2007, with an annual growth rate that could be well under 20 percent, according to Xinhua economic analysts.
The report also notes that the growth rate of imports is not expected to change from 2006.
Despite the Chinese government's effort to balance the country's balance of payments, China's trade surplus is expected to break US$200 billion, the analysis indicates.
The report said the growth of exports will decline as a result of a slowing world economy, the continuing appreciation of the RMB and the end of some tax rebates that have been used to encourage exports. These factors could mean a growth rate in exports as low as 15 percent. The second half of the year is likely to see the steepest decline in export growth, said the report.
In the 11 months ending November, China's exports increased 27.5 percent over the same period in 2005, almost seven percentage points higher than the growth rate of imports which registered a growth of 20.6 percent from January to November last year.
The report said December is traditionally the busiest month for exports, and last month's exports will likely contribute to an even great growth rate increase in 2006. The trade surplus for 2006 will be close to US$180 billion, an increase of US$77 billion over 2005.
Xinhua Economic Analysis Reports are regularly written by a team of more than 80 economic analysts under the Xinhua Economic Information Department. Their latest reports reviewed the country's 10 key indices in the economic and financial sectors and made projections on possible changes over the coming year.
(Xinhua News Agency January 2, 2007)