It took only one hour for the Thai military to launch and declare success of a bloodless coup on Sept. 19, a phenomenon not seen in Thai politics for 15 years, to oust Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

And it took about half a month for the coup leaders to install an interim government in early October led by former army chief Surayud Chulanont, the new premier.

It will take roughly one year, as the government and the military-led Council for National Security (CNS) has promised, to draft a new Constitution to replace the annulled 1997 version, and to facilitate a new general election by Oct. 2007.

Yet, nobody could tell how long it will take for the new administration to eradicate the political legacy of Thaksin.

Political chaos leads to coup

When Thai Army-Commander-in-chief Sonthi Boonyaratkalin, allied with other military and police chief commanders, declared on TV and radio on Sept. 19 night a power seizure from the Thaksin government in a surprisingly swift move, came the culmination of political turmoil that started in early 2006 and had disturbed the order of Thai people's lives.

At the end of 2005, a Thai media tycoon and former friend of Thaksin, Sondhi Limthongkul, began his critical campaign on the media against Thaksin, accusing him of corruption and abuse of power.

This eventually developed into mass protests in Bangkok through the first half of 2006. The campaign was joined by the Sondhi group, disobedient Thai media and urban middle class whose interests had been hurt by some of Thaksin's populist policies including the low-cost health care scheme that earned him great support among grassroots.

Fueled by the Thaksin family's what the protestors said undervalued sale of Thai telecom giant Shin Corp to a Singaporean investment company in January, the anti-Thaksin movements led by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) frequently staged mass rallies, prompting Thaksin to dismiss the parliament and called a snap election on April 2.

Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai party (TRT), boasting of the backing of one sixth of the country's 60 million population, won the election amid boycott by main opposition parties and doubts about its legitimacy.

The election was later nullified by Thailand's Constitution Court. An investigation was also carried out to probe the alleged malfeasance by the election commission and irregularities by the TRT and opposition parties during the April ballot. As a result, three election commissioners were forced to resign and jailed.

Despite rescheduling of a general election for Oct. 15, political climate remained tense due to a foiled bombing assassination attempt on Thaksin in August and the later arrests of four military suspects, which illustrated the gap between Thaksin government and the military. Rumors about a military coup began to spread.

Thaksin's fate undecided

A former telecommunication tycoon and Thailand's twice-elected prime minister between 2001 and 2006, Thaksin was in New York attending the United Nations General Assembly when the coup took place quietly in the evening of Sept. 19. He failed to turn the tables when his announcement declaring a state of emergency and dismissing Sonthi was cut off minutes after going on air.

Thaksin has since been kept out of his homeland. It remains unclear how and when Thaksin, who had run the Buddhist kingdom with a CEO-model leadership, will end his exile.

The Sonthi-led CNS and the interim government have alleged that Thaksin will have to wait for an indefinite "right time" to return to the kingdom, and only after getting consent from one of them.

Thaksin's lawyer has recently confirmed to the Thai press that the deposed premier would not be back to the country before the political situation returns to normal and he might even wash hands from politics as his family always wished and his opponents always demanded.

Under international pressure, the interim government has recently announced the partial lifting of the martial law, which was imposed after the coup. But the list left out the northern and northeastern provinces, including Thaksin's hometown Chiang Mai, the traditional voter base for him and a stronghold of the TRT party.

Besides, the National Counter Corruption Commission and Assets Examination Committee, appointed by the CNS after the coup, were undertaking various corruption charges against Thaksin and former cabinet members, which would prove to be an interminable legal process.
 
Southern unrest unabated

Another hot potato the Surayud government has took over from the Thaksin administration is the unabated separatist violence in the deep south, namely the Muslim-dominated provinces of Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat.

The wave of southern unrest, claimed more than 1,800 lives in the past three years, has been on the rise recently, with drive-by shootings and arson attacks targeting various groups of people on almost a daily basis.

Surayud, who has frequently visited the region after coming into office, reiterated that his government would end the unrest by peaceful means. The government has also planned to create a special economic zone to help promote development in the impoverished region.

Although the peace-making efforts were hailed by international and domestic rights groups, the government still failed to reach reconciliation with the separatists, whose core force comprises a younger generation of militants that took on more extreme tactics and cared for no peace talk with the government, according to analysts.

Hurdles not to be dodged

The political turmoil, however, has not had a big impact on the kingdom's economy, as the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) on Dec. 4 revised its 2006 forecast for Thailand's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate from previous 4.2-4.7 percent to 5 percent. Its 2007 forecast remained at 4.0-5.0 percent. Thai economy grew 4.5 percent last year, receding from 6.2 percent in 2004.

Thailand's exports remain strong with a two-digit growth rate by now this year, though the appreciation of baht, the national currency, to an eight-year high has aroused exporters' complaints and prompted the central bank to plan measures to tighten restrictions on the currency supply.

Some economists still voiced worries that an unclear political direction could cause stock market stability and dampen investments, undermining the country's economic growth as a result.

On Dec. 10, an anti-coup demonstration, the first after the Sept. 19 coup, was held in Bangkok to mark Thailand's Constitution Day and protest against the rule of the CNS and the interim government.

Having appeared tolerant with sporadic, small and generally peaceful protests since the coup, the CNS has recently toughened its stance to warn rally organizers not to have the protests turn violent.

Yet, the Thai government would found no quick or easy fixes exist for the troubled nation to end the southern unrest, upgrade its disaster management, improve its international image, prevent a possible comeback of Thaksin, and most of all, pull the country out of disruption to be back on track.

(Xinhua News Agency December 20, 2006)