With domestic and international problems mounting, President Obama is unlikely to stake the prestige of his Presidency on a quest for Middle East peace, an Israeli security expert said today. Professor Zaki Shalom also said the Israeli public had voted decisively against a policy of restraint in the recent general election.
Speaking at a press briefing at the Israeli embassy in Beijing, Professor Shalom said President Obama faced a choice between taking personal charge of the Middle East peace process, following the example of President Carter who brokered the 1979 peace deal between Egypt and Israel, or leaving matters to his Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton.
"If there is to be a resolution of the conflict with the involvement of the US, it has to come from the President himself," said Professor Shalom.
"We don't yet know the policy of the Obama administration towards the Middle East. Frankly Obama himself does not know. He has not yet formulated solid thinking on the Middle East."
US weak and sick
Professor Shalom said the economic problems in the USA are very severe "America is weaker than ever before – it's very weak, and to a certain extent a sick country from many points of view."
"A few months ago at Sharm el-Sheikh, President Bush made a comment about Egypt's role in stopping the smuggling of arms to Gaza. President Mubarak did not like what he said and stepped out of the room. This is something we couldn't think of years ago."
Professor Shalom said the USA had provoked unnecessary problems with Russia on the issue of stationing missiles in Europe. A further confrontation is brewing, he said, in South America where President Chavez has called for Russia to station bombers in Venezuela.
Faced with many domestic and international problems, "Obama will hesitate before he puts himself into the Middle East Arab Israeli conflict as a President."
He said that although Israel depends on America and has to take America's views very seriously, it has large room for maneuver on the American political scene with powerful friends in Congress, the media and strong support from public opinion.
Prospects for 2 state solution "almost unrealistic"
Professor Shalom said prospects for a two state solution to the conflict were receding. "Due to the weakness of the Great Powers, due to the political scene within Israel, due to the split within the Palestinians, realistically the prospects of a permanent agreement between Israel and the Palestinians in the near future is very, very low."
Speaking specifically about a 2 state solution that has commanded widespread support in Israel until recently, Professor Shalom said "Many Israelis and many Palestinians tend to think the fulfillment of this vision is almost unrealistic."
International community giving Israel a free hand
Professor Shalom said that one result of the recent Gaza conflict was that the Arab world has learned that when Israel carries out an operation the international community is supportive.
"The international community, and I refer mainly to the United States and Europe, gave us almost a free hand to do whatever we wanted. There was no pressure put on Israel during the war."
He said European leaders visited Israel after the conflict in a show of support. The European attitude was "more than understanding" with Merkel, Sarkozy and Brown all taking the view that Israel was acting in Gaza in defense of its own security.
Election a decisive vote against policy of restraint
Professor Shalom said that in the recent general election Israelis had voted decisively against the policy of restraint he said Israel had followed since the Oslo accords in 1993. As the strongest power in the Middle East, Israel, he said, had seen its duty as keeping the conflict with the Palestinians at a low level of intensity.
One of the major catalysts of the change of heart among the electorate, according to the professor, was the failure of the Israeli army to achieve a victory in the 2006 Lebanon war.
"We didn't win the war in Lebanon. There was no clear cut, victory not even a vague victory."
"Israel lost its credibility and anyone who is familiar with strategic thinking knows that credibility is the essence of deterrence."
Dahiyah doctrine of disproportionate response.
Following the 2006 failure of the Israeli Defense Force to achieve its objectives in Lebanon, General Gadi Eisenkot proposed, in 2008, the so-called Dahiyah doctrine "What happened to the Dahiyah neighborhood of Beirut in 2006 will happen to each village from which Israel is fired on. We will apply disproportionate force and inflict huge damage and destruction."
Professor Shalom said he had felt that the doctrine would fall foul of both international pressure and internal Israeli constraints concerning civilian casualties.
"I thought this doctrine had no prospect of being implemented but I was wrong. .It was implemented in Gaza."
"My assessment is this doctrine will go on. This will be the doctrine that will prevail in future confrontations. The doctrine that we held in Gaza will be enacted again and again."
Zaki Shalom is a member of the research staff at the Institute for National Security Studies and the Ben-Gurion Research Institute at Ben-Gurion University. He has published extensively on Israel's defense policy, the Arab-Israeli conflict, and the role of the superpowers in the Middle East.
(China.org.cn by John Sexton March 17, 2009)