中国面临气候变化带来的贫困阴影
初冬季节，辽宁西部的北票市西官营镇大巴里村，冷清安静，路上鲜见行人。
村支书闫玉国解释说：“今年我们这里赶上了１９５２年以来最严重的旱灾，大田作物基本绝收，村里许多劳动力都外出打工去了。”
尽管这里的农民并不知道７日在哥本哈根开幕的联合国气候变化大会与他们有什么关系，但是全球气候变暖的恶果却实实在在地影响着他们的生活。中国正在承受着因气候变化而带来的贫困阴影。
辽宁西部从今年６月下旬至８月下旬出现持续２个多月的高温少雨天气，特大旱灾让辽宁３０００多万亩农田受旱，其中５００多万亩干枯绝收，受灾人口３００多万人。
辽宁西部与内蒙古自治区接壤，是十年九旱的生态脆弱区。２００６年的伏旱、２００７年的春旱、２００８年的秋旱，今年又遭遇大旱，基本靠天吃饭的农民返贫现象严重。
“中国等发展中国家，尤其是像辽宁西部这样贫困落后的地区，对全球气候变暖的‘贡献’最小，但是现在他们却首当其冲地承受着气候变化带给他们的灾难。”中国农业科学院农业与气候变化研究中心主任林而达说。
国家发展和改革委员会１１月发布的《中国应对气候变化的政策与行动——２００９年度报告》指出，过去一百年中，中国的气候变化趋势与全球趋势基本一致，平均温度升高了1.1℃，略高于全球平均升温幅度。
林而达认为，中国贫困地区与气温变化受灾地区范围基本重合，贫困地区农民最容易遭受气候灾害影响，因此而造成的致贫、返贫现象严重。
林而达认为，气候灾害和疾病已经成为中国贫困人口致贫、返贫的两大主要原因，而气候变化对生态脆弱地区的影响更不容忽视。干旱、高温、沙尘暴、病虫害等重大灾害发生的频率、程度和范围明显增加。
辽宁省朝阳县七道岭乡黑达沟村农民宋宝林家里，除了空地上摆着的十几颗秋白菜，院里粮仓空空的。
５６岁的宋宝林说：“我家４口人，今年种的１０亩玉米都旱死了。” 宋宝林不得不为他家今年的生活担心。
西北地区１２８个气象水文观测站观测数据显示，１９８７－２０００年平均气温较１９６１－１９８６年升高了０．７℃。
甘肃省永靖县是国家扶贫开发重点县之一。２０世纪８０年代以来，永靖县气温呈升高趋势，降水量呈减少趋势，重大干旱灾害发生频率明显增多。
而地处西南的四川省马边彝族自治县也同样受到气候变暖的影响。近５０年来，这个县温度上升，降水减少，但降水强度却有所增加，使得局部洪涝灾害加重。
为了应对气候等不利因素导致的农民贫困，中国已经和正在采取诸如整村推进、劳动力转移培训、产业扶贫等措施。
根据国务院扶贫办公布的数据，中国农村贫困人口已经从１９７８年的２．５亿人减少到２００７年的１４７９万人，２００８年，按新的农村贫困标准１１９６元测算，年末农村贫困人口为４００７万人。
幸运的是，还是有人从这些扶贫政策中受益，如辽宁大巴里村村民闫玉胜。今年他家的农田作物基本绝收了，当地政府补贴４万多元，村里帮助他从银行贷款６万多元，他一下建起了两个蔬菜大棚，分别种着西红柿、黄瓜和辣椒。现在，在已经收入了几千元后，他对未来很乐观。
“还贷应该没问题，”闫玉胜说，“以后一年咋也能挣个５万来块钱吧。”５万元对当地农民来说已经是高收入了。
虽然这些政策在一些地方卓有成效，但林而达建议，国际社会和中国政府应按类型，采取更具有针对性的区域差别化扶贫战略。
China facing climate change caused poverty
Dabali Village in western Liaoning Province is quiet in this early winter. Few pedestrians can be seen in the country lanes.
"We have been hit by the severest drought since 1952, causing us to harvest almost nothing from the field. Many young villagers have gone to work elsewhere," said Yan Yuguo, Party branch secretary of the village.
Unbeknownst to the villagers, the United Nations Climate Change Conference on the other side of the globe was busy addressing issues such as these. The disastrous effects of climate change exert great influences on people's lives, and many in China suffer from poverty because of it.
The drought in western Liaoning began in late June and lasted for two months, with extreme high temperatures and sparse rainfall victimizing about 4.9 million acres of farmland. Among them, 823,696 acres had no harvest at all, and total drought victims reached 3 million.
Western Liaoning borders the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, with the frail ecology constantly beset by droughts. It suffered through a drought every year from 2006 to 2009, causing the farmers to freefall into poverty.
"In developing countries such as China, impoverished areas such as west Liaoning contribute the least to global warming, yet they are the first to bear the brunt of disasters caused by climate change," said Lin Erda, director of the Agriculture and Climate Change Center of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
According to "China's Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change - The Progress Report 2009," issued by the National Development and Reform Commission in November, China's climate change trends were keeping in step with the world. The average increase in temperature in the past 100 years was 1.1 degrees Celsius, only slightly higher than the world average.
Lin said that poverty-stricken areas in China coincided with areas influenced by climate change. People in impoverished areas were more likely to also be climate change victims, with worsening natural environment conditions and living standards causing poverty to linger.
According to Lin, climate disasters and disease were two major reasons for poverty's return, with the impact of climatic change in ecologically frail areas only worsening the issue. Disasters such as drought, high temperature, sandstorms, plant diseases, and insect pestilence have all happened more frequently in a larger number of areas, with increasingly severe aftermaths.
In the yard of farmer Song Baolin of Heidagou Village in Liaoning laid a dozen Chinese cabbages. His granary was completely empty.
"There are four people in my family. All the corn I planted this year in my 1.6-acre field died because of drought," said 56-year-old Song, deeply worried about how he was going to make a living without anything to harvest.
Temperatures in northwest China have also risen, according to observation data of 128 climate and stream flow measuring stations. The average temperature during 1987 to 2000 was 0.7 Celsius degrees higher than the average from 1961 to 1986.
Youngjing County in Gansu Province is one of the key counties of the national poverty alleviation plan. The temperature there has risen every year since the 1980s while the amount of precipitation has steadily decreased, sharply raising the frequency of severe drought.
In southwest China, Mabian Yi Autonomous County in Sichuan Province experienced similar adverse effects due to climate change. In the last 50 years, the county had become hotter and less humid, but the precipitation intensity increased, causing regional floods.
In order to deal with climate change-caused poverty, China has taken to actions such as relocating villages, training migrant laborers and supporting rural industries.
According to the State Council Leading Group Office of Poverty Alleviation and Development, there were 14.79 million rural people in poverty in 2007, a monumental decrease from 250 million in 1978. However, in 2008, based on the new poverty line of a 1,196 yuan annual income (about US$ 175), the number of people in poverty in rural areas reached 40.07 million.
Fortunately, there are still those, such as Yan Yusheng in Dabali Village, who are benefiting from poverty alleviation policies. Though he harvested nothing this year, the local government gave him a 40,000 yuan (US$ 5,857) subsidy and helped him get a loan of about 60,000 yuan (about US$ 8,787). He built two vegetable greenhouses and planted tomatoes, cucumbers and chilies. Now, having earned thousands of yuan, he is optimistic about the future.
"It should not be a problem for me to pay the loan. I believe I can make 50,000 yuan (about US$ 7,321) a year," said Yan, quoting a number that is rather high for local farmers.
Though the policies were effective in some places in China, Director Lin Erda suggested that the international community and Chinese government should develop more specific poverty alleviation strategies based on regional differences to eliminate poverty caused by climate change.
(China.org.cn by Ren Zhongxi, December 11, 2009)
