A rising Brazil and the US-China relationship
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Brazil, the largest country in South America, has become a rising star on the global stage and an important partner of China. During President Obama's first South America trip in March, the United States praised Brazil as a soaring economic force and booming export market. Some commentators have described the situation as China inviting Brazil to ally with it and the US extending open arms to South America in an effort to strengthen its position in the post-American world.
The US and China have a complex and dynamic relationship. Any dispute between the two countries has tremendous global implications. Similarly, any global issue can impact US-China bilateral relations. The question is whether a rising Brazil will influence the US-China relationship. And the answer is yes.
Brazil has a neutral attitude toward the US and China. Any move Brazil makes may shift expectations regarding the future global balance of power, and thus influence US-China relations. Brazil is geographically closer to the US, but historically, the two countries are not close. While Americans think of Brazil as being Rio de Janeiro and its beautiful beaches, Chinese see its shared image as a rapidly developing nation.
Now, as Brazil is developing, it recognizes the importance of market opportunities with the world's two largest economies. It also realizes it needs the political support of these two permanent members of the UN Security Council. But it is not in Brazil's best interests to choose sides between the US and China. First of all, there are not two sides. The US-China bilateral relationship is strategically cooperative. Secondly, the US and China have overlapping interests in Brazil. A win-win game is always a better choice than a zero-sum competition. Thirdly, Brazil is the fifth largest country by population with substantial growth potential. Instead of betting on the US-China relationship, Brazil could become a stakeholder in not only the US and China relationship, but in all international relationships.
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