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Treading carefully [By Jiao Haiyang/China.org.cn]

Listen to what Obama tells voters

The third way to measure the Sino-US relationship is to listen to what the US tells its own citizens, not what it explains to the international community, especially China. The US is no more truthful when speaking to the Chinese than the Palestinians. For example, the US pivot to Asia is obviously directed at China, but American politicians and diplomats refuse to acknowledge this glaring truth.

Chinese people, especially those who are studying English, are unable to distinguish the difference between what the US tells its own people versus foreign governments. This is a fundamental error. Like all other countries, the United States still defines its own country as "we" and the international community as "they", because politics are defined to national boundaries. It is very possible to count the number of times a candidate says "we" in a campaign speech. When foreign citizens hear this word, they realize that the United States is not as magnanimous and inclusive as it holds itself out to be.

The word "we" is exclusive. It has a domestic connotation that refers to a community. But the word "they" refers to foreign groups that exist outside the US and outside the community. So I pay attention to what the US president or Congress says to different interest groups. Looking at how American leaders speak to their constituents has a great deal of academic value. When the president says "we," he is reaffirming his status within the community.

The idea "we" is much more valuable than any diplomatic speech given by the president, and should be studied for the benefit of Sino-US relations. Unfortunately nobody in China has ever calculated how many times Obama said this exclusive word in his State of the Union address and other important public announcements.

To date, the most important "we" was given in reference to reform in the United States, and proves the belief that the United States is transitioning to a post-hegemony power. Obama must lead the US forward in this complicated time of transition.

Obama will be remembered as the first US president to lead the country after it lost its place atop the global power structure. He has promised "recovery" and claims he will return the United States to its first among equal status in global influence. However, I believe that by 2016 the world will clearly recognize that the United States is in a period of decline.

Obama looks overseas

Obama really doesn't have any possibilities for a third term, short of world war. Therefore the president should be able to pursue his legislative agenda without fearing a loss at the next election cycle. It will be interesting to see what changes the Obama administration can achieve over the next four years.

It's not easy to let go of the wheel in the context of guiding legislation through Congress, especially as Republicans control over half the seats in the House of Representatives. The GOP could actually take full control of Congress after the mid-term elections in 2014. In light of this fact, Obama had better roll up his sleeves over the next two years , otherwise he might not get anything done between 2014 and 2016.

Obama will not be able to easily advance his administration's domestic agenda. However, by comparison his chances of pursuing his foreign policy plans should be relatively easy, as the United States has a large network of alliances and diplomatic allies. China must be wary of an international coalition supporting US interests.

Obama must accelerate the United States' rebalancing strategy if he expects to leave any sort of legacy. Obama's recent trip to Myanmar was an opportunity to show off Washington and Wall Street's sway on foreign policy. This was not only an opportunity for Obama to visit the reclusive Southeast Asian country, but represented firm evidence of Obama's pivot to Asia.

In addition to focusing more attention on the Asia-Pacific region, Obama will also have a few other surprising diplomatic victories. For instance, he has stressed the political importance of Africa and the Middle East, and has expressed a desire to make a "hometown" visit sometime in January 2013, most likely to Indonesia.

Indonesia will host the APEC Summit in 2013, and when Obama "returns" to Jakarta, his childhood home, he will likely be able to celebrate the success of his rebalanced Asia-Pacific strategy.

The author is an International Relations professor at Renmin University of China.

(The article was first published in Chinese and translated by Li Bin.)

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

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