Possibility of another Korean War

By Xi Yazhou
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, April 7, 2013
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Photo shows a KPA antiaircraft gun (AA Gun) battery. North Korea does not have advanced surface-to-air missiles, and relies on small-calibre AA Guns for its air defenses, which have limited effect against U.S. and South Korean air forces.

Photo shows a KPA antiaircraft gun (AA Gun) battery. North Korea does not have advanced surface-to-air missiles, and relies on small-calibre AA Guns for its air defenses, which have limited effect against U.S. and South Korean air forces.[Guancha.cn] 

The situation on the Korean Peninsula has been tense in recent months. Soon after North Korea’s ballistic missile and nuclear weapons test, the United States and South Korea began conducting high profile joint military drills. The U.S. has already deployed B-52 and B-2 nuclear strike capable bombers to participate in the drills in response to the North’s increasingly loud rhetoric.

Both North Korea and its southern neighbor are on full military alert, signaling to the world that the peninsula is on the precipice of a second Korean War.

From a military point of view, what are the strengths of both sides? Based on publicized information, we are able to predict how the ensuing war would unravel.

North Korea’s three-day blitz?

North Korea recently posted an online video threatening to launch what it calls a “three-day blitz” against South Korea.

The North Korean military, headed by its supreme leader Kim Jong-un, said its armored ground forces will advance southward across the military demarcation line (Latitude N.38), after shelling the South with artillery and missiles. North Korea is also confident it can easily occupy major cities in South Korea with paratroops and Special Forces, taking 150,000 Westerners hostage.

But is this a viable strategy?

I think it is fair to say that North Korea has been fantasizing. The North’s military capabilities are far behind those of the South, thus advancing across the border will be extremely difficult even without the presence of U.S. troops.

Korean People’s Army (of the North Korea) does have an advantage in numbers. The KPA maintains a regular force of more than 1 million soldiers; its special forces even have 90,000 troops – the largest such presence in the world.

By contrast, the South Korean army has 500,000 troops in active service. Although South Korea believes it is capable of mobilizing 4 million troops, there would not be enough time for the South to respond to a “three-day blitz.”

North Korea's Ro-dong Missile on military parade

North Korea's Ro-dong Missile on military parade[Guancha.cn]

South Korea holds an overwhelming technical advantage not only in its edge-cutting weapons, but also in the shared battle field intelligence systems provided by U.S. troops. North Korea’s decades’ old artillery is no longer capable of suppressing the South along the border garrison.

Should the KPA’s 1 million soldier dare to march on their southern neighbor, they would be rebuffed by joint U.S.-South Korean forces. North Korea, lacking an effective air defense system, is doomed to suffer a disastrous defeat similar to how Iraqi forces lost during the Gulf War.

Launching a surprise attack with paratroops and Special Forces was feasible in the 1960s and 1970s, at a time when North Korea had the upper hand in warfare near the border, particularly by means of underground and maritime infiltration capabilities.

But South Korea, with U.S. support, has developed a whole set of countermeasures to protect against the KPA’s Special Forces, including enhanced border monitoring technologies and heavy-weapon defense systems.

Accidents did happen on occasion. Defecting North Korean soldiers were sometimes not caught sneaking across the border until they reached South Korean military camps. But in general, the South’s measures have proven effective against the KPA’s semi-submersibles’ infiltration attempts.

Once a large scale war breaks out, North Korea would be unable to send its massive ground forces into combat zones without being noticed. Its helicopters and transport aircrafts will be easy prey to the South’ air defense systems.

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