Possibility of another Korean War

By Xi Yazhou
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, April 7, 2013
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North Korea’s so-called attack drones are no more than small recon drones armed with rockets or warheads, and are used as kamikaze attack platforms. Even though they are protected against electronic jamming, they would not perform well against South Korea’s concentrated air defense.

North Korea can only rely on its missile weaponry to deliver effective attacks. Many types of North Korean missiles can strike across South Korea despite primitive guidance systems. The short range will in fact compensate for the warheads’ precision.

Underground facilities are believed to exist in North Korea’s Sunchon Airport, in Pyongan-namdo.

Underground facilities are believed to exist in North Korea’s Sunchon Airport, in Pyongan-namdo.[Guancha.cn]

KPA’s KN-02 Missile has a range of 120 km and a circular error probability (CEP) of 30 meters – 0.025 percent of its range. It is effective in attacking South Korea’s tactical targets. Based on these statistics, the 1000-km Ro-dong Missile will at most miss its target by 250 meters, but its one-ton warhead can still deliver damage to its target.

If North Korea plans on hitting U.S. bases in Japan or Guam, then it will have to use the Musudan. This long range missile has a 700-meter CEP, and North Korea will have to use nuclear warheads to compensate for the unpredictable ballistic impact point. North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), which can reach the U.S., do not have any actual combat capability.

Will South Korea march northward?

Since North Korea is unable to push across its southern border, will the U.S.-South Korea joint forces annihilate the KPA and throw out Kim’s regime?

It is understood that North Korea has carefully developed its military infrastructure over the years, which will help make up for some of the country’s tactical disadvantages, allowing the North more time to plan its retreat. Kim’s conventional weaponry will nonetheless pose a credible threat to the invading U.S.-South Korea troops.

North Korea has followed China’s lead to put important military facilities underground. From Google Earth images, the U.S. pointed out that North Korea has around 20 underground airports.

More than half of KPA’s modern fighter jets are based in Sunchon Airport, Pyongan-namdo. Other air bases are more surface-to-surface missile silos than air force bases. Regular cruise missiles such as the Tomahawk are unable to penetrate underground. U.S. and South Korea bombers have to fly over the target and drop bunker busters to destroy these sites.

North Korea is not unaware of its military disadvantages. Since the 1990s, North Korea’s military has focused on “total retaliation on Japan and South Korea,” and has developed some capability in this regard.

South Korea has more than 70 percent of its national economic activity within 40 km of its northern border, making it vulnerable to North Korea’s large-calibre artillery, tactical rockets, and multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS).

U.S. and South Korean air power will eventually wipe out North Korea’s defenses, but this would take a considerable amount of time given the North’s arsenal of cannons and howitzers scattered along its southern border. North Korea’s missile bases would also be a high-priority target.

North Korea’s air dense is no better than that of Iraq in 1991 and former Yugoslavia in 1999. North Koreans instead have been focusing on survivability while under attack.

In long term, the U.S. and South Korea can considerably cripple the North Korean military with their absolute air superiority. South Korea is expected to finish off North Korea with ground forces. But this operational plan will inevitably jeopardize the U.S., South Korea, and Japan themselves. The U.S. has to prepare for casualties ranging in the thousands.

The North understands its military inferiority. This is why it is unable to showcase its strength except through countless declarations and warnings.

On the other hand, the U.S. has to value if it’s worthwhile to wage war, which by all means would be disastrous for South Korea. South Korea’s decades’ of economic growth will be thrown into the flames of war. Even radical South Korean leaders such as Lee Myung-bak could at best “unite the Korean Peninsula” through lip services.

Nuclear cloud over Korean Peninsula

North Korea’s nuclear weapons still have guidance problems, but are good enough to serve as a deterrence.

This has made the U.S. nervous. The U.S. is trying all means to prevent North Korea from integrating its nuclear technology with ICBM technology. Simultaneously, the U.S. has issued solemn warnings regarding North Korea’s nuclear plans.

The U.S. has not deployed nuclear weapons in the Asia-Pacific region, according to public information. But the U.S. government has announced it would use a B-61, a bunker buster nuclear bomb with a depleted uranium penetrator. Its nuclear warhead is adjustable to meet a TNT equivalent between 300 tons to 10,000 tons.

But the U.S. is most likely to put the B-2 and F-22 in actual combats should war break out. Thus, their participation in the latest U.S.-South Korea joint drills does amount to a nuclear deterrence to North Korea.

Why does North Korea maintain a high profile?

North Korea has maintained an extraordinary high profile during this latest crisis. As of March 29, its official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) has issued 20 warnings to the U.S. and its South Korean ally. Other North Korean governmental and military agencies have adopted similar stances.

Bilateral relationships involving China, North Korea, South Korea and the U.S. have been subtly different since the Northern attack on the ROKS Cheonan in 2010 and the subsequent standoff between the two Koreas on the Yellow Sea.

The U.S. knows that China’s military growth has outgrown its Asia-Pacific deployment. The U.S. is in a de facto retreat from this region despite Barack Obama’s high-profile urge to “Return to Asia,” evidenced by its shrinking military presence in South Korea over the years.

In 2011, the U.S. for the first time announced it would drop plans for OPLAN 5029, a proposed joint military operation effort for dealing with "sudden change" in North Korea, such as a coup d’état, outflow of weapons of mass destruction, hostage situation, or major natural disaster.

Under the revised plan, the U.S. has required South Korea to be responsible for its own national security, and in 2010 rejected South Korea’s attempt to overthrow the Northern regime.

Then why does the North Korea want to assume such a high-profile stance when neither the U.S. nor South Korea is particularly keen on attack?

It is known to all that North Korea’s deceased leader Kim Jong-il failed to boost his economic reform plans. But his son, the present supreme leader Kim Jong-un, has shown resolution to carry it on. He actively sought to strengthen trade ties through “total opening up,” though in fact this has only been done to a limited extent with China.

But reforms are generally met with difficulties and Kim Jong-un’s case is not an exception. Even the supreme leader Kim cannot afford to be labeled as a copycat of China’s practices. Hence, Kim Jong-un, amid doubts and distrust, must show to his nation that he, like his father, also has an iron fist.

All signs indicate that the Korean Peninsula situation is unlikely to deteriorate.

The author is a military commentator and information industry observer.

The article was first published in Chinese and translated by Chen Boyuan.

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

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