Alexis de Tocqueville's book, The Old Regime and the French Revolution, has become popular among readers on the Chinese mainland over the past two years. The idea in De Tocqueville's book which most resonates in China is that old regimes fall to revolutions not when they resist change, but when their attempted reforms fail to meet the raised expectations of the people. Along with De Tocqueville's book, many articles have been written comparing trends in today's China with the root causes of the French Revolution. Regretfully however, most of these opinions lack any deep analysis of China's changing social structure and its social contradictions.

Today's China is totally different from the country of the late 1970s when the reform and opening-up policy was first implemented. China has entered a new historical period of pluralistic contradictions and social interests. In this complicated society, it's difficult for people to share their views on reform and even more difficult for them to share their views on revolution.

The root causes of the French Revolution

The first cause is related to the relationship between economic prosperity and revolution. A popular saying goes that Louis XVI's reign ushered in France's most prosperous period, but the prosperity only accelerated the French Revolution. This saying is clearly at variance with historical fact, as the worsening economy was the root cause of the French Revolution. In 1788, an outbreak of famine in rural France led to soaring bread prices and many people died of hunger and diseases. At the critical juncture, France was flooding with cheap British industrial products, which severely impacted the French textile industry and resulted in the closure of many factories. France went heavily into debt and the seeds were sown for the beginning of the French Revolution.

The second cause is linked to the relationship between reform and revolution. Another popular saying goes that for a government beset by problems, reform could certainly give rise to revolution. Reform opens a lid and in the following period, society experiences a certain amount of chaos and unrest. But fundamentally, if social reform can really address major social contradictions and meet the requirements of the majority of people, the chances of revolution will be diminished. For example, if the United States hadn't carried out major economic and social reforms during the Great Depression of the 1930s and social reform during the advent of the Civil Right Movement in the 1960s, it is possible that social unrest may have been the result.

Tackling grievances through reform

Let's talk about the situation in China. Impacted by the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976), China was suffering severe shortages of farming products and everyday items by the end of the 1970s, and the country's overall level of development lagged far behind that of the Soviet Union. Compared with the Soviet Union and East European countries, China appeared far more likely candidate for revolution. So how did it escape the turmoil?

At that time, the main contradiction was between people's material needs and traditional economic and political systems. Thanks to the brilliant older generation of Chinese revolutionaries and a relatively stable international environment, people's anger towards existing systems was calmed down through gradual reform.

The 30-year reform period has helped several hundred million Chinese people shake off the chains of poverty and the country's economic volume now ranks second in the world. Significantly, China has gradually solved contradictions between the people and existing systems through reform and this has prevented social collapse. In conclusion, economic development and prosperity has resolved China's intense social contradictions.

Resolving revolutionary ire through pluralism

Nowadays, few people deny the fact that the policy of reform and opening-up has brought great progress to China. However, this progress has resulted in even more complicated social contradictions with people nursing more grievances, so is it possible that China could once again be haunted by the specter of revolution? I think this is unlikely, given China's pluralistic contradictions and pluralistic society, which make it difficult for people to form common revolutionary goals.

The 30-year reform programs have hastened new social contradictions. The excessive marketization of medical care, education and housing areas has aroused public wrath and a widening disparity of wealth has become the glaring point of contradiction. With new problems piled on old, it is difficult for people to speak with one voice and make a clear choice in favor of a particular system which China should follow in order to pursue its goals.

Since the end of the 1970s, ordinary Chinese people have changed from echoing what others say to expressing their own views freely. What is especially interesting is that many nationalists worry that in the process of development, China may lose its current socialist system and political stability. This situation was unimaginable 20 or 30 years ago.

Pluralism marks great progress in terms of the development of human society. The interests of different societal groups make it difficult for society to lean to one side or the other. On the surface, a pluralistic society appears noisy and restless and without consensus. However, such a society will reach a final dynamic balance through its contradictions and in the end, a society full of different views and opinions is much safer and healthier than one which leans obviously to one side.

The author is a researcher with the Chunqiu Research Institute and has been residing in the United States for many years.

This article was first published in Chinese and translated by Li Jingrong.

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

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