With Rodrigo Duterte winning the presidential election in the Philippines and the ruling on the South China Sea issue being delayed, the world is wondering how the incoming Filipino president will treat the issue.

Mending ties and maintaining alliances

A major diplomatic challenge for Duterte is to elevate the military ties between his country and the United States while mending its political relationship with China.

During his campaign rally in late April, Duterte said that he would ride a jet ski and plant the Filipino flag on a disputed island in the South China Sea if the Filipino navy failed to safeguard the island sovereignty. But he also remarked that it would be a dead end for the Philippines to fight China on the South China Sea issue. The president-elect said he was open to bilateral talks with China and willing to explore possibilities regarding the energy assets in the contested area. He seems to subscribe to the principle of "shelving differences and seeking joint development" proposed by late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping.

On May 19, Duterte told American President Barack Obama that he supported the alliance built between the Philippines and the U.S., but added that he would opt for bilateral talks with Beijing if current efforts don't resolve the disputes in the South China Sea. According to him, President Obama urged him not to engage in a bilateral dialogue with China before a ruling on the South China Sea issue has been reached.

Duterte seems keen on mending Filipino-Chinese ties. In a number of public speeches, he has made it clear that he would maintain the sovereignty of the Philippines in the South China Sea, but also pledged to restore bilateral talks with China.

Based on what we've seen, the incoming Filipino president will stay away from the pro-U.S. policies promoted by outgoing president Benigno Aquino III. He is more likely to promote reconciliation with China, but he will also find himself under pressure due to the presence of the U.S. military in his country. Therefore, he needs to improve the ties with China while at the same time embracing his country's old ally, the U.S.

Opportunity for Chinese-Filipino ties

People in the Philippines didn't endorse the strong attitude that outgoing president Aquino III took on the South China Sea issue. An opinion piece in the Filipino newspaper Manila Standard on May 14 denounced Aquino III as a "stooge" for the U.S. and said that his "confrontational approach has pushed [the Filipino people] to a situation where [they] practically stand just one step closer to a ‘state of war' with China."

After the presidential election, Duterte was asked again how he would treat the dispute in the South China Sea. "I would say to China: 'Do not claim anything here and I will not insist also that it is ours'," he told reporters.

Duterte's actions and remarks are an adjustment of the current Filipino-Chinese ties, which have been going astray for some time now. His efforts to stay away from Aquino's diplomatic policies and his intention to cement ties with China demonstrate his pragmatic spirit.

Duterte is a tremendously pragmatic political figure. The fact that he made his stance on China and the South China Sea clear before and right after winning the presidential election – instead of waiting till the end of June when he will be officially sworn in office – demonstrates the attention he will give to. But, of course, he will not unconditionally accept China's claims on the South China Sea issue. He said he was willing to have a direct dialogue with China to formulate a joint exploration plan in the contested waters and avoid war. He will adopt a strategy similar to that of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, the predecessor of Aquino III – treading a middle course between China and the U.S and not choosing sides.

The Philippines will be the chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 2017. Duterte's stance will have a concrete impact on the growing disputes in the South China Sea. His diplomatic policies are highly unpredictable and can be an opportunity to improve Chinese-Filipino relations.

The writer is a professor of the PLA National Defense University.

This article was translated by Zhang Lulu based on the original unabridged version published in Chinese.

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

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