The symbolism of Sino-Russian naval drills
- By Sumantra Maitra
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E-mail China.org.cn, September 27, 2016
Chinese and Russian navies recently conducted a major joint military exercise in a symbolic drill to "seize an island." The eight-day long drill involved storming beaches and seizing control of the "island."
It has a strategic significance, after the Philippines arbitration move and American and Japanese statements regarding ownership rights in the South China Sea.
This was also the largest naval military exercise between the two countries, and involved conventional submarines as well as anti-submarine vessels and missile destroyers. Xinhua news agency quoted a senior officer as saying the drill "achieved its objective."
That is, in effect true, considering the drill was symbolic as a projection of force as well as a geopolitical statement. This comes after Japan recently announced that it would be conducting joint training cruises with the U.S. navy in the South China Sea.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kang quickly criticized Japan for interfering in China's backyard.
The recent island-seizure exercise has generated apprehensions as drills like these significantly improve realtime combat capability and the Russian and Chinese navies are doing exactly that.
The drills are also symbolic for Russia. Struggling with two wars on its eastern and southern flank, it is isolated geopolitically. This drill, however, shows Russia is in regular combat training with another great power in the most economically-active region of the entire world.
Not to mention the fact that the Russian navy could do with some combat training as it has never faced a proper war since WWII. The current navy, even after undergoing some impressive refurbishing, is still rusty and old compared to both the American and Chinese navy, and is a pale shadow of, say, the 1970s.
A simplistic assessment of all this, therefore, might follow these lines. This is part of a massive realignment going on in the Asia-Pacific region. On one hand, the American and Indian armies are conducting joint army exercises in North India, and the U.S., Japanese and Indian navies are conducting regular exercises. Indian military planners point out that India has the largest number of joint exercises with U.S. in the world.
According to Cleo Pascal, associate fellow at Chatham House Adjunct Faculty in the Department of Geopolitics, Manipal University, India, Chinese opposition to Indian Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) membership killed off any support for China among the Indian defense community and solidified the Indian alliance with United States.
Russia was also planning a joint military exercise with Pakistan which was called off after a recent terrorist incident in Kashmir. All this points out the wheels of realignment in Asia.
The reality is however a little different. Yes, there is a realignment going on, definitely. However, it is not clear, as yet, if the realignment has gone as far as alliance formation and other such behavior.
India-U.S. relations have improved significantly but real differences remain. The biggest involves how to deal with Pakistan. After recent attacks on the Indian Army by Islamic militants, the difference is more sharp and obvious. China, even though a great power, is much less of a daily threat to India than the terrorists, who are capable of doing real damage to Indian cities.
Similarly, Australia is starting to balance U.S. and China, something which is not going down well with either American politicians or the military. Similarly, Washington is not looking too kindly as potential détente between Japan and Russia.
Much of this remains "early stage," of course, but shows that states are acting according to their national interests, and is much more independent than during the Cold War, for example. Also, structural forces and individual interests constrain these states to form firm alliances as of old.
So, finally what to make of it? The recent Russian-Chinese exercise is, after all, just that, an exercise, designed to improve combat capabilities, although certainly more symbolic for Russia than China.
It's certainly not a threat to U.S. and not a first step to forming an alliance. In fact, every great power should remember and base their actions on the assumption that, in the great game of geopolitics, they are alone, and cannot count on anyone's help or support.
In the unlikely event of conflict in South China Sea, every major power involved will be alone, and will have a duty to de-escalate. In cooperation lies prudence, as Sun Tzu said a long time ago.
Sumantra Maitra is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm
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