Just how volatile is Asia really?
- By Sumantra Maitra
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E-mail China.org.cn, January 27, 2017
The Center for National Interest recently organized a Facebook Live roundtable, which discussed U.S.-China relations when it comes to Asian geopolitics and order. Kurt Campbell and Gordon Chang took part, among others, and Chang said that the Asian powers are showing balancing behavior. He stated India's potential sale of Aakash anti-aircraft missiles to Vietnam as evidence. But is Asia genuinely as volatile as some suggest? Evidence points otherwise.
Let's take the first example of Sino-American rivalry. There's no certainty among U.S. policy makers that there is a potential conflict brewing between U.S. and China. There're two different policy positions on that, both rational and both suggesting completely opposite views. The first one calls for containment. The second, which calls for engagement, wants both U.S. and China sharing and being responsible stakeholders in Asia.
There has been of course recent brouhaha about an ill managed phone call with Taiwan, and the Chinese side has cautioned the American side that any breakage of the One China policy will have consequences for the U.S.-led order in Asia. American analysts agree. Stephen Walt wrote in FP how the phone call was completely ill advised and ineptly handled. It simultaneously risked picking a fight with Beijing as well as making the U.S. hand weak, which proves how incompetent this stunt was. Others pointed out that it is not in Taiwan's interest to break the One China policy as well, as there will never be any U.S. cavalry coming.
The reality remains that there is no end game in a Sino-U.S. rivalry over Taiwan. It is not in the strategic interests of the U.S., but on the other hand it is existential for Beijing. Also, U.S.-China trade is realistically much more important compared to any other interest in Asia. As I mentioned before, the best way to be in Trump's good book is to form a one-on-one relationship with him at the earliest opportunity. Trump understands deals, and deals are something that should be offered to him pronto.
Take for example the recent meeting between Jack Ma and Trump over Alibaba's plans for the U.S. Ma met Trump to lay down a striking deal, whereby a million new jobs might be created in the U.S. In a meeting that defied practically everything that one's reading in news, this proves that Trump is after all business and cooperation minded and can be a lot friendlier if U.S. economic interests are safeguarded properly.
Finally in a recent confirmation hearing, Rex Tillerson, the U.S. secretary of state to be, mentioned an interesting point in his statement. He said that while there are incredible differences between China and the U.S., as there should be between two great powers, nothing is worth the cost of a break in compromise. He added curiously, in a substantial break from previous U.S. policy, that China has been a partner in cooperation against Islamists. It marks a remarkable change and a more Realist turn of events.
Barring this great power rivalry, we see that Asia is otherwise a relative oasis of stability. Compared to all the other continents, it is one continent where the economy is growing. It is also a continent where free trade is not a toxic word, as in some other parts of the globe. It is a continent, where the middle class is increasingly educated and can find jobs. All this points to a smooth future, provided the giants can keep their eye on the ball and focus on trade. Trade, in addition to a clear communication channel between the powers, might just guarantee peace.
Sumantra Maitra is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm
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