What to expect in Trump-Merkel meeting?
- By George N. Tzogopoulos
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E-mail China.org.cn, March 17, 2017
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The coming meeting between Merkel (left) and Trump (right) will be a significant step to solve misinterpretations of the previous months. |
During the eight years of Barack Obama's presidency, relations between Germany and the U.S. were marked by a spirit of solidarity. The decision of former U.S. president to visit Berlin and meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel in his last trip to Europe was indicative of their personal harmonious cooperation and the excellent status of the bilateral relationship of their countries.
This does not mean that problems were not existing. The spying scandal of the National Security Agency (NSA) on German intelligence as well as the German-American disagreement on how to deal with the financial and debt crisis constitute some examples. Nevertheless, they were not sufficient to alter or significantly influence the mutual collaboration will.
All this is not taken for granted these days though. New U.S. President Donald Trump does not hesitate to blame other countries in his attempt to "Make America Great Again." Germany could not be an exception. A few days before his inauguration he had linked German automobile manufacturing companies with unfair trade practices because they do not operate factories in the U.S. but only export their products to it. He subsequently threatened them with high tariffs, mentioning a 35 percent border tax.
At the policy level, Trump criticizes Germany's leading role in the European Union and the eurozone. He believes Berlin used the euro to boost its export industry. In a recent interview with the Financial Times, Head of National Trade Council (NTC) Peter Navarro was not diplomatic, and reiterated the president's argumentation. He said that the euro was like an "implicit Deutsche Mark" whose low valuation gave Germany an advantage over its main trading partners.
Berlin's response has been straightforward. It clarifies it has no power or the ability to manipulate the common currency. It also explains that its opposition to the Quantitative Easing (QE) plan decided by the European Central Bank (ECB) contains a contradictory economic logic from what Washington suggests. To be specific, if the ECB stops QE, the euro will be pushed upwards and not downwards.
Under these difficult circumstances for the bilateral relationship, Angela Merkel will visit Washington on March 17 to meet Donald Trump. The visit takes place three days after the originally planned one due to difficult weather conditions. Merkel is charismatic in finding common ground with politicians she does not agree with on several fronts. In the first six months of 2015, for instance, she managed to keep Greece in the eurozone by using personal diplomatic capital to persuade the inexperienced and rhetorically leftist Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras on the risk to go alone. Of course, Trump is not Tsipras as he is much more powerful and unpredictable. But Merkel's conciliatory tone, patience and talent to find solutions remain the same and will certainly be apparent in Washington.
The agenda of Merkel-Trump meeting will be revolved around economics and politics. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the 2016 bilateral trade volume was $163.589 billion. But the U.S. had a trade deficit of $64.865 billion - which was approximately $10 billion lower in comparison to 2015 and 2014 - but still remarkably high.
The Trump administration advocates for protectionist measures to drastically change this imbalance. Its rhetoric is rather similar to the one it employs against China.
Merkel and Trump are expected to discuss their different positions in order to achieve a common understanding. The issue is not expected to be resolved in Washington but will be a theme of future deliberations. As it is also the case with China, Germany can retaliate against the U.S. if a trade war breaks out. There are several U.S. products which might be also hit including computers, TVs, telephones, pharmaceuticals, airplanes, cars and electrical equipment.
One day before Merkel's U.S. visit, the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin held their first meeting in Berlin before a G20 Baden-Baden gathering. Schaeuble and Mnuchin continued discussions on trade with the latter saying he wants no trade war in order to keep tensions low. There are also additional signs that the initial ice between them has been broken. During an exchange of views with journalists Schaeuble was optimistic that Mnuchin will abandon his insistence on deregulating financial markets.
As far as politics is concerned, the Merkel-Trump talks will focus on international cooperation, principally on relations between the EU and the U.S. and the role of NATO in the world. After their telephone conversation in the end of January, the two leaders issued a joint press statement stressing the "fundamental importance" of the alliance to transatlantic ties and they will publicly stick on this commitment. Nevertheless, Trump's request for NATO members to spend a 2 percent of their GDP on defense cannot be soon satisfied by Berlin causing frustration to Washington. Also, Merkel's preference to preserve the sanctions against Russia will be perhaps challenged because the U.S. president is exploring ways of promoting a rapprochement with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. The chancellor is also facing domestic pressure on this issue as leader of the Christian Social Union (CDU), Horst Seehofer, calls for an end of sanctions.
All in all, the meeting between Merkel and Trump will not constitute a breakthrough for a return of the German-American partnership to the normalcy of the Obama years but will be a significant step to solve misinterpretations of the previous months. The forthcoming German election will possibly postpone the making of critical decisions for a later stage. However, it will not prevent the finding of a common denominator to keep the bilateral relationship on track. As Merkel tends to say: "When there is a will, there is a way."
George N. Tzogopoulos is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/GeorgeNTzogopoulos.htm
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.
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