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On April 16, Turkish citizens are voting on whether they agree or disagree with the establishment of a presidential system in their country. President Tayyip Erdogan is not legally allowed to exercise executive powers. According to the current Turkish Constitution, it is the prime minister who enjoys these powers.

Visiting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attends a joint press conference with his Croatian counterpart Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic (not seen in picture) at the Presidential Palace in Zagreb, capital of Croatia, April 26, 2016. [Photo/Xinhua]

By proposing and organizing the Sunday referendum, Erdogan hopes that Turkey will abandon parliamentary democracy and will enter a new political era. He campaigns for a "yes" vote while his political opponents – mainly the Republican Party (CHP), the pro-Kurdish one (HDP) and some minor coalitions of the Left – strongly oppose him and campaign for a "no" vote.

Surveys conducted so far have not given a clear projection on the result of the referendum. Some show that the "yes" response has the lead and others predict a "no" victory. Analysts talk about a "neck and neck" race. It is wiser to wait for the official vote instead of anticipating the outcome. Several polling companies have completely failed in the past and cannot any longer be regarded as reliable.

Τhere are three main factors which will define the result of the referendum. The first is whether supporters of the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) will show unity and cohesion in supporting Erdogan's cause. The second is whether voters of the Nationalist Party (MHP), who seem to be divided in some opinion polls, will finally opt for a "yes" or "no" vote. And the third is how general undecided voters will think and act on Sunday.

Arguments of the two political camps are contradictory. Erdogan underscores the importance of a "yes" result for the stability in Turkey. He says that uncertainty will not any longer characterize domestic politics and promises good governance. In the past, he explains, prime ministers and presidents did not always smoothly cooperate. In his view, this can change with the constitutional amendment if accepted by the majority of citizens.

By contrast, Erdogan's political opponents argue that checks and balances will be weakened if a new president can concentrate almost all powers. They are also skeptical about the continuation of his dominance. Although politics is often unpredictable, it is likely that the current Turkish president will win the presidential election of 2019 and 2024, to stay in power until 2029. If a snap election is called between 2024 and 2029, Erdogan will be able to even extend the permitted ten-year term for a longer time.

The day after will be difficult for Turkey irrespective of the referendum result. Divisions are evident for years and they have been intensified since 2013. Erdogan has introduced a religious aspect in politics which is endorsed by a significant half of the population but is considered an anathema by the other half.

The situation has deteriorated due to internal political tensions. At the beginning it was the disagreement between Islamists and Kemalists. And now it is also the clash between the Turkish president and cleric Fethullah Gülen. Following the failed coup of July 15, 2016, the former embarked on a crackdown operation against supporters of the latter.

Erdogan can be even more assertive if he wins. Therefore, some say that a "no" vote will put some limits to his objectives and facilitate a milder and conciliatory approach. Others, however, believe a governance gap will be created in the case of Erdogan's political defeat which might cause new instability.

At the foreign policy level, the main concern in the West is whether Turkey – under the rule of a more powerful Erdogan – will change its orientation moving more towards the East. There has been a general discussion on the matter since August 2016 when the rapprochement between Ankara and Moscow began. The Turkish president is very careful in making strategic choices.

He often disagrees with the U.S. and he does not hesitate to blame it publicly but he refrains from ignoring the obligations of Turkey as a NATO member state. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson did recently visit Ankara where he did not come to an agreement with the Turkish side on crucial themes such as the American support for Kurdish forces in Syria and the extradition of Gülen.

The recent air strikes against a Syrian military base create new momentum for the bilateral cooperation though. Erdogan positively sees the establishment of terror-free zones in Syria.

The Turkish president acts similarly vis-à-vis the EU. He threatens Europe, he accuses it for not proceeding with the visa-liberalization deal, he often blackmails it with a potential cancellation of the agreement on the refugee crisis but he keeps a minimum level of collaboration alive. Erdogan attempts to diplomatically bargain. He does not seek to freeze his country's relations with traditional partners in a period during which he is internationally isolated.

In six years, in 2023, Turkey will celebrate the 100th anniversary of the Republic. The ambition of Erdogan is to build a reputation better than that of the founder of the Republic, Kemal Atatürk. His ambition goes hand-in-hand with Sunday's referendum. Whether he wins it or not, he is the politician shaping the course of Turkey's future.

George N. Tzogopoulos is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/GeorgeNTzogopoulos.htm

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

 

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