Trump's Middle East policy and China
- By George N. Tzogopoulos
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E-mail China.org.cn, June 5, 2017
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Jordan's King Abdullah II addresses news conference with U.S. President Donald Trump in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, U.S., April 5, 2017. [Xinhua file photo] |
The last unsuccessful effort was made by former President Barack Obama, a man positively disposed vis-à-vis the Muslim world who believed he could inspire a wave of peace following his 2009 Cairo speech. He was caught by surprise when the Arab Spring erupted in 2011 and 2012 and became involved in a rivalry with Russia in Syrian civil war.
He also failed to predict the rise of the Islamic State and only responded after a serious delay by ordering military attacks in Iraq and Syria. Moreover, he caused an unusual crisis in his country's relationship with Israel.
Now, it is Donald Trump's turn to enter the Middle East circle of fire. For an American president without any foreign policy experience to respond to the high expectations of the region when his predecessors' hopes were dashed, it seems particularly difficult.
Trump, however, counts on the support of Israel, disenchanted by Obama's policies, to lead the U.S.-Israeli partnership back to normalcy, marked by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu being one of the first foreign leaders to visit the White House after Trump's inauguration.
He obviously appreciates not only Trump's pro-Israeli stance but also his skepticism on the deal under Obama concerning Iran's nuclear program, or at least the tactics being adopted by Tehran to escape international sanctions.
The decision of Trump to select the Middle East for his first international trip indicates the significance he attached to the region. In parallel with Israel, he is determined to improve his country's relationship with countries such as Saudi Arabia. That is why he began his visit from its capital, Riyadh.
Not only did he sign important deals on arms sales and investments, but he also agreed with King Salman to cooperate in the fight against terror and strengthen their bilateral strategic partnership. On the whole, he received a broader support by Arabs to combat the Islamic State during a meeting with heads from Gulf Cooperation Council and attending the Arab-Islamic American Summit.
With these significant achievements in his luggage, Trump travelled to Jerusalem and Bethlehem in order to put pressure on Israelis and the Palestinians to re-launch negotiations for an "ultimate deal." Trump does not consider the creation of a Palestinian state a necessary presupposition, unlike Obama and even George W. Bush.
He believes the new dynamics of the Middle East for which he is pushing, will pave the way for an agreement between Netanyahu and leader of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas. In Trump's view, the U.S. should get things started, but then the main responsibility should lie with Middle East countries closely involved.
Potentially, an official rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia – partly driven by their common concern about Iran – can possibly contribute towards better understanding and also break some taboos about Israel in the Arab world with a greater sense of realism. It should not be forgotten that Israel already enjoys relatively good relations with Egypt and Jordan.
According to Washington's plan, Riyadh will likely be required to use its influence over the Palestinians by pressuring them to moderate their positions and be more positive toward Israel.
China is carefully looking at the new policy elements the U.S. administration is introducing to the Middle East under Trump. In recent years, Beijing has closely monitored developments in the region and appointed a special envoy of Middle Eastern affairs as well as other diplomatic envoys for the Afghanistan and the Syrian issues.
The rise of terrorism alarms China because some Xinjiang militants are trained in countries such as Iraq and Syria. And terror acts can put into danger important works of the Belt and Road Initiative which passes through the region.
The Chinese administration seems to prefer a modest role in the context of the Arab-Israeli conflict and in the Middle East in general, although it clearly supports the perspective of a two-state solution. By keeping a low profile, it manages to avoid being stigmatized of interfering abroad – in line with its foreign policy principles.
It is also able to advance its relations with almost all Middle East countries, even if they are at odds between themselves. In March, for instance, Prime Minister Netanyahu visited Beijing to explore new patterns for bilateral collaboration. Fourteen months before this visit, President Xi Jinping had made a Middle East tour with stops in Egypt, Iran and Saudi Arabia yielding mutually positive results.
To keep a delicate balance is China's priority in the Middle East, while it is certainly looking for new opportunities as long as the Belt and Road policy develops. Trump's policy cannot jeopardize this plan under a specific condition: that the U.S. president will not scrap the deal on Iran's nuclear program. Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently warned that this agreement "should not be affected by any changes in the domestic situations of the countries concerned."
Apart from this theme, Beijing favorably looks at initiatives which could bring the Israelis and the Palestinians back to the negotiation table. As Xi reiterated to Netanyahu during their last meeting in Beijing, a peaceful Middle East is good for all.
Of course, China remains skeptical on the real chances of success. A change in regional dynamics will not essentially entail the "ultimate deal" as Trump wishes.
George N. Tzogopoulos is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/GeorgeNTzogopoulos.htm
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.
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