Germany in political crisis?

By George N. Tzogopoulos
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, November 28, 2017
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German Chancellor Angela Merkel [Xinhua]

When the German election took place approximately two months ago, the result was seen through a double perspective. 

The first was the fourth consecutive victory of Chancellor Angela Merkel, making her comparable to leaders such as Konrad Adenauer and Helmut Kohl; and the second was the success of the populist right-wing party – Alternative for Germany (AfD) – ending the country’s immunity to far-right parties. 

However, almost no one could have predicted the subsequent difficulties in the formation of a new government. The possibility of a coalition between the Conservatives – the Christian Democrats and the Christian Socialists of Bavaria – the Liberals and the Greens, was clearly gaining ground and in some minds almost a fait accompli. 

Yet, optimism for the shaping of a so-called“Jamaica” coalition (based on the party colors) has been proved wrong. The parties failed to come to an agreement before the set deadline. The main reason seems to be the hesitation of the leader of the Liberals, Christian Lindner, to participate in a government that offered a risk of personal and political damage. 

Lindner is clearly discouraged by the negative experience of the 2009-2013 period. During that period, his party – under a different leadership – supported a conservative-led government. Public opinion was disenchanted with its performance and as a result the Liberals failed to enter parliament in the September 2013 election.

In contrast, the Christian Democrats and the Christian Socialists seemed to get on well with the Greens. German media, including the well-informed Bild newspaper, reported“constructive consultations” between their representatives. The two parties alone do not produce the necessary number of votes to form a government, though. 

So, where is the“Jamaica” failure leading the country? Three scenarios are discussed for the coming weeks. The first is the formation of a grand coalition between the Conservatives and the Social Democrats, as happened in the last four years. The second is the building of a minority government between the Conservatives and the Greens. Third is the call of a snap election in 2018. 

Each of the three scenarios is feasible under current circumstances. However, all of them could be problematic. To start with regard to the possibility of a new grand coalition, Social Democrat leader Martin Schulz has repeatedly excluded it. He believes that the German public opinion wants his party to be in opposition based on its decision to give it a percentage only slightly exceeding 20 percent in the recent federal election. 

Practically speaking, he seeks to gain time in order to reorganize the party, elaborate on new policy ideas, forge an effective opposition line and create conditions for a victory in the 2021 election. 

Now, Schulz is under pressure. Not only the Conservatives but also some Social Democrats are attempting to convince him to change course. 

A minority government is constitutionally permitted (Paragraph 4 of Article 63). Nevertheless, this could entail political risks and has never happened since creation of the German Federal Republic in 1949. And a minority government would hardly be stable. 

Chancellor Angela Merkel has publicly said that she prefers a new election rather than to have a government lacking the required parliamentary majority. She places much emphasis on“political stability,” which is well-founded in German political culture. 

As far as early elections are concerned, they will not necessarily function as solution to the problem. There’s no guarantee the Conservatives will receive a mandate to govern alone or in cooperation with the Greens. 

The interpretation of the recent election is straightforward. The majority of German citizens wants a coalition government with Merkel as Chancellor, but not as powerful as she used to be in the past. 

They will maybe re-send the same message, should they be asked to vote again. The same difficult political dilemmas will then return in the form of an even worse nightmare. 

To sum up, Germany is encountering unprecedented political inertia. Obviously, as a well-organized country enjoying efficient governance structures, it has not entered any crisis or unknown adventure yet. 

Nonetheless, expected policy initiatives – such as the Franco-German dialogue on the future of Europe – are postponed and this can only hurt. It remains to be seen whether calls for political responsibility – including from President Frank-Walter Steinmeier – will generate a compromise tendency and sideline the insistence on disagreements. 

George N. Tzogopoulos is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/GeorgeNTzogopoulos.htm

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.


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