​Turkey's Afrin gamble

By Sajjad Malik
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, January 26, 2018
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Operation Olive Branch [Chinanews.com]


Turkish forces crossed the Syrian northern border on the weekend and entered the Afrin enclave to clear out the Kurdish fighters of the People's Protection Units (YPG) and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Turkey considers these groups as a threat. 

Code-named as Operation Olive Branch, the offensive is a mixture of strategic, political and security objectives. Apparently, Turkey is planning to deal a crushing blow to YPG fighters near the border. It is so far too early to say if it will succeed. 

The YPG has the support of the United States. Media reports suggest that the group is also funded and armed by Washington. YPG played a vital role in the fight against the Islamic State last year. Its credibility as a battle-hardened force is unquestionable. But it also raises concerns in Turkey, which considers a strong Kurdish force near its border as a security threat. 

Interestingly, the Russia soldiers present in the area left ahead of the onslaught by Turkey. It means that Ankara might have entered in some sort of tacit understanding with Moscow ahead of the attack, as the weakening of the YPG will damage the interests of the U.S. 

Another reason for Russia to let the Turkish forces come across the border without any resistance could be that the defeat of Kurdish forces in the area would strengthen the hands of Bashar al-Assad. Kurds have become strong in northeastern Syria and could become a future threat to the integrity of the country. 

So, Russia is trying to kill two birds with one stone by looking the other way when Turkey is smashing the Kurds. First, it will weaken the position of the U.S. in Afrin and nearby areas; second, it would strengthen the position of the central government of Syria in the tricky and fluid security scenario. 

The Afrin adventure means opening up a new front of war in Syria, which is already badly battered due to the civil war. The conflict has been raging since the spring of 2011 and destroyed the fabric of the country. Turkey's adventure may push the possibility of peace further away by complicating the situation on the ground.

The Islamic State might use the chaos to regroup as the focus of YPG has shifted towards Turkey. It would be a mammoth loss for all stakeholders if IS made a comeback. The rebel groups and the countries supporting them change their positions and one cannot rule out a new configuration of fighting groups and factions.

Turkey has also been changing its position. It had good ties with the Syrian government before the start of the civil war. But later it joined those elements that demanded removal of President Bashar al-Assad. After the involvement of Russia, the situation changed further. Now Turkey is not asking for the skin of al-Assad. 

Turkey is also facing regional challenges. It is trying to walk a tight rope to keep good ties with Saudi Arabia and Iran. Though, initially it helped to create the Syrian Free Army in league with Saudi Arabia, it has now tilted towards Tehran after tension between the kingdom and Qatar.  

Turkey also needs to maintain a balance in ties with Russia and the United States. But most importantly, it should micro-manage ties with the U.S. in order to manage the Kurdish factor that could pose a threat to its sovereignty. 

But it should have waited and used diplomacy instead of physically invading and targeting Kurds because it sets a dangerous example for others. Saudi Arabia has a problem with Yemen. What should it do to dismantle the threat of Houtis' missile attacks? Can it follow the Turkish model of entering another country?

Lately, President Donald Trump talked to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and urged him to stop the Afrin offensive in order to avoid a conflict with U.S. forces. He also urged a de-escalation to avoid civilian deaths. Erdogan may not like the idea but open opposition would bring him in conflict with the U.S. which it can hardly afford.

The Afrin intervention could exact a price if mismanaged. Opinions are also divided in Turkey over the issue. It would be better if Erdogan could wind up the operation at the earliest. Failure would push him deeper and deeper into the quagmire of Syria.   

Sajjad Malik is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:


http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SajjadMalik.htm


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