​Kim needs China's support in best and worst-case scenarios

By Haifa Said
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, April 3, 2018
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Xi Jinping (2nd R), general secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and Chinese president, and his wife Peng Liyuan (1st R) meet with Kim Jong Un (2nd L), chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) and chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), and his wife Ri Sol Ju at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, capital of China. At the invitation of Xi, Kim paid an unofficial visit to China from March 25 to 28. During the visit, Xi held talks with Kim. [Photo/Xinhua]


Kim Jong-un's description of his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping as a "moral responsibility" and "solemn duty" serves well as a guiding line for understanding the implications of the North Korean leader's unofficial visit to Beijing, paid upon by the latter's invitation.

Two crucial summits lie ahead for Kim, and a lot is at stake if he fails to play it right. At his initiative, Kim is expected to be meeting President Moon Jae-in of South Korea in April, and President Donald Trump later in the year, in what could be a first-of-its-kind summit between a North Korean head of state and a sitting U.S. president. 

However, choosing China as his first ever overseas trip since gaining power in 2011,  before the meetings with the South Korea and U.S. leaders indicates a sign of a growing sense of maturity and responsibility in approaching diplomacy and international relations.

After drawing the ire of the international community last year for launching a series of long-range ballistic missiles and nuclear tests that almost put the world on the verge of a nuclear war, Kim is trying to place himself into a leader-level game of negotiations, which he knows will be tough and fraught with hard bargaining.  

The denuclearization of the Korean peninsula will be the key to negotiations.  

Beijing, the North's long-time ally, trade partner, and oil and food supplier, has also unswervingly adhered to this goal as the key to preserve peace and stability on the peninsula.

It has even toughened its stance with its traditional ally, backing and observing stringent UN Security Council sanctions against Pyongyang, for the first time in 2017, after seeing North Korea relentlessly pursing nuclear weapons and repeatedly launching nuclear tests, causing months of saber-rattling and exchanges of threats of military strikes with the U.S. and South Korea and jeopardizing the security of the entire region.

With China abiding by the sanctions, North Korea has seen its crippled economy further stifled due to the curtailed flow of the much-needed oil, and the cutting off of its coal exports to Beijing.

Going to face his counterparts amid frayed relations with Beijing means Pyongyang would appear alone and vulnerable, a gap that could be too risky and costly for Kim, and, therefore, he is trying to bridge it. 

Observers are skeptical that Kim's summit with Trump, should it take place, would even come close to the goal of denuclearization, given the history of mistrust that has shaped Washington-Pyongyang relationship. From the U.S.'s point of view, denuclearization means the one-sided dismantling of Pyongyang's arsenal. North Korea's interpretation, on the other hand, eyes the removal of the U.S. anti-missile shield in South Korea.  

As Kim tries to show that he is heading towards possible direct talks with Trump from a point of strength having established his country as "a regional nuclear military power," he seems to be aware of the range of the best and worst-case scenarios and the risks ahead.

He, therefore, knows that he needs to restore his country's traditional friendship with China to guarantee his interests and gains. Lifting the sanctions and breathing life back into the economy are chief among those. 

Taking the proactive step of winning China's favor and securing its support in any scenario is essential for the survival of Kim's embattled regime and his starving country. As he put it to Xi, quoted by North Korea's state-run agency, Kim considers continuing NK-China relations as valuable as life.

In turn, China, by inviting Kim to Beijing, seems to be keen on being informed of what Kim plans to say at the planned talks, and maintaining coordination of positions, and probably "terms of negotiations" as it prepares to confront a looming trade war with the U.S., where various cards might be played. 

Embracing restored friendship with the North sends a signal to Trump and Moon that China is back at the center of the game, where it still has leverage over its neighbor, and thus any settlement of the nuclear dilemma has to pass through Beijing. 

Out of its responsibility and commitment to the key goal of denuclearization of the peninsula and adherence to dialogue, Beijing took the diplomatic initiative to send a briefing regarding the North Korean leader's visit to Washington and Seoul, including a "personal message from Xi to Trump."

The North Korean nuclear file is a regional security issue that can only be solved through dialogue among all the parties concerned and having China at the center of the process is essential for de-escalating tensions and achieving a convergence of views.

Haifa Said is chief editor of the English Department at the Syrian Arab News Agency.


Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.


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