American strategic failure on Iran destroys its credibility

By Mitchell Blatt
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, August 25, 2019
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The Iranian flag flies at Iranian oil tanker Adrian Darya 1, before being named as Grace 1, as it sits anchored after the Supreme Court of the British territory lifted its detention order, in the Strait of Gibraltar, August 18, 2019. [Photo/VCG]

American policy-makers and pundits are making strategic miscalculations on Iran, leading the country and the world closer to armed conflict.

The most recent blunder came when the Trump administration petitioned the British overseas territory of Gibraltar to detain an Iranian ship on Aug. 16 on the grounds it had ties to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, which the U.S. labels a terrorist organization. 

There was only one problem: Neither the United Kingdom nor the European Union recognizes the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization; it is a branch of Iran's conventional military. So, Gibraltar declined the request, and Iran accused the U.S. of "piracy."

Gibraltar had already seized the Iranian ship in July on suspicion it was delivering oil to Syria in violation of U.N. sanctions. It was released after assurances were given it would not discharge cargo in Syria. Iran responded to the original incident by seizing a British ship, which it is still holding.

The whole episode shows the disorganized and haphazard American policy towards Iran is not working. America's unilateralism is cutting it off from its traditional allies. Those allies, including Britain and France, wanted to maintain the multi-party Iranian nuclear deal. Since the U.S. abandoned cooperating with its own deal, the Gulf region has grown increasingly unstable.

The Trump administration has already destroyed its credibility with other countries on a host of issues. Donald Trump's actions, from pouting through international summits to throwing Starburst candies at German Prime Minister Angela Merkel at a G7 meeting, sending Trump's daughter, Ivanka, to the G20, where she clearly doesn't belong, to lecturing NATO countries about not spending enough on defense, and threatening trade wars with the EU, Germany, France, South Korea, Japan, Canada, and Mexico, have strained a number of relationships and burnt through Trump's political capital. 

If the U.S. is not going to do anything for its friends, why should they go out on a limb for it?

America cannot take on Iran on its own. It has many tools at its disposal to make life difficult for Iran, but a successful strategy requires international coordination. However, its European allies and others are looking for ways to get round American attempts to restrict trade with Iran. 

The U.K., France, and Germany announced earlier this year they were developing an alternative payment system, INSTEX, they hoped could facilitate legitimate trade with Iran even in the wake of U.S. attempts to sanction any banks doing business with Iran.

Labeling the military of a U.N.-recognized nation as a "foreign terrorist organization" was a troll-like move. Meanwhile Trump's mercurial attitude and absolute inability to stay disciplined on a message causes confusion within his own administration and with foreign countries. 

Trump often suggests he would be willing to talk with Iran, but he and administration staffers are always changing their demands in regard to the necessary preconditions.

In June, Trump said he would be willing to talk to Iran with "no preconditions," contradicting Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's earlier speech laying out conditions for engagement with Iran. A few days later, however, Trump threatened the "obliteration" of Iran after it shot down an American drone. 

Talking tough, he briefly approved a strike on Iran before canceling it. One former official quoted by The Daily Beast called Trump's Iran policy "absolute amateur hour."

Right-wing American commentators are overconfident in their faith regarding America's position. To take one example, Victor Davis Hanson of the National Review, argues that America's position as the number one producer of oil by volume means Iran lacks leverage. 

However, the U.S. has always been a major oil producer and has never imported significant amounts of oil from Iran. So, nothing much has changed on that front and America doesn't have much leverage, either.

However, oil is traded on an international market, so that, even if the U.S. doesn't need to import oil directly from Iran, a drop in the latter's production would increase worldwide oil prices by stressing demand for oil from other countries. 

Before the Trump administration increased sanctions and ended waivers, in fact, a number of American allies, including South Korea and Japan, were importing hundreds of barrels a day from Iran. They comply with the sanctions because they have to, but they aren't happy about it. 

However, Iran will continue to find means to offload some of its oil, countering attempts by the U.S. to reduce the country's oil exports to zero.

Without a coherent plan in place and without a credible regime in Washington, relations between Iran and the West will hobble along until, hopefully, a capable replacement is chosen in America's 2020 presidential election.

Mitchell Blatt is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/MitchellBlatt.htm

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

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