Doubled Income and Rising Welfare by 2020

In line with the 18th CPC National Congress report, by 2020, China's GDP and per capita income for urban and rural residents will be double that of 2010.

Real growth

At the 18th CPC National Congress it was pointed out that in accordance with China's economic and social advance, new requirements will have to be met in building a moderately prosperous society as proposed during the 16th and 17th Congress.

New measures focus on "doubling the country's GDP and per capita income by 2020" and have attracted attention from all walks of society.

On first impression, a grandma named Sun, a resident of Beijing's Tongzhou District, phoned her daughter, commenting that, "if commodity prices and wages rise, despite doubled incomes, how will we improve our daily lives?"

In answer, Liu Shangxi from the Research Institute for Fiscal Science, Ministry of Finance, explained that "doubled incomes" refers to disposable per capita earnings, from which personal income tax and social security insurance, etc. is deducted.

"Doubled" growth in per capita incomes thus equals a real term rise minus inflation factors. "When commodity prices remain the same, incomes double," Liu said.

"I got it!" grandma Sun immediately began her calculations by counting her fingers. Today, her income, combined with that of her husband, amounts to 9,000 yuan ($1428.6) a month, which could reach 18,000 yuan ($2857.1). "This means I will soon be able to replace my old TV-set and fridge. We can also afford to travel several times a year," she exclaimed.

Chen, a 22-year-old vocational school graduate, works as a hotel chef. His wife is an assistant in a toggery. Their incomes add up to around 7,000 yuan ($1111). In order to save money for a house and baby, they live in a shabby house without heating during winter. "If our salaries double, I will immediately rent a studio flat with heating and an air conditioner for summer. With a separate bathroom and kitchen we could really settle down in Beijing," Chen said in excitement.

Despite positive GDP forecasts, neither the 16th or 17th CPC National Congress put forward specific targets geared towards increased incomes. The 18th Congress report is the first to include both issues. "To allow incomes to keep pace with economic growth" means achieving Scientific Outlook on Development requirements and fulfilling mass expectation for better lives.

Doubling the economic aggregate and per capita incomes serve as two "rigid indexes" to further visualize the rosy picture of a Xiaokang (relatively well-off) society in people's mind.

Practicable doubling

As long as the annual average economic growth rate reaches 6.9 percent, doubled growth is possible.

There is only 8 years to go before we "submit our test papers." Is it possible to realize the aim of "doubling incomes"?

Zhu Zhixin, Vice Minister of the National Development and Reform Commission, thinks that the target is attainable and encouraging. "In 2011, China's GDP jumped by 9.3 percent over the previous year, which indicates that as long as the annual growth rate remains at 7 percent for the following nine years, we can reach the target. It is a realistic aim and conforms to the '12th Five-Year' Plan."

With steady economic development, "wallets" will inevitably fill up. "To double per capita incomes within 10 years is not a radical aim," said economist Ye Tan. In many regions, it is even put forward in the "12th Five-Year Plan" to double salaries within 5 years.

According to Li Yang, Vice President of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, as long as China's annual economic growth rate reaches 6.9 percent, doubling both GDP and earnings is possible.

Putting people's richness first

When GDP increases, in line with current policy, incomes could more than double.

In fact, during the first decade of this century, Chinese incomes also doubled. In urban areas, after the deduction of inflation factors, per capita disposable incomes grew by 9.2 percent, while in rural areas, annual per capita net incomes increased by 8.1 percent, still falling behind annual GDP growth of 10.2 percent over the same period. Economic development outpacing income growth has meant a continuous decline in salaries in proportion to GDP, from 50.4 percent in 2000 to 47.9 percent in 2008. Many believe new requirements for "simultaneous doubling" will change this old pattern, but fail to reverse the effect of previous low shares in national wealth.

"It must be pointed out that 'to double growth' is a bottom line, not a final target. A 'simultaneous growth pace' is not an ideal state, but rather a basic requirement," Liu Shangxi said. According to the 18th Congress report, further aims include reforms to the income distribution system, assisting income growth to keep pace with national economic development, help labor remuneration growth occur in tandem with an increase in labor productivity, raising the proportion of incomes to an overall national wealth level and upping the proportion of labor remuneration to primary wealth distribution, etc. In conclusion, we'll try our best to accelerate income growth and help people improve their lives as fast as possible!

Sharing the fruit of "doubling incomes"

While aiming to double earnings, narrowing income gaps for common prosperity should not be forgotten. The report of the 18th CPC National Congress stresses the importance of "narrowing the income gap by making national fruits of development available to all."

To solve the problem of income disparity is one of the basic conditions for the construction of a well-off society.

"Civil servant income standards will surely rise correspondingly, but the salaries of those of us who work in private sectors is decided by our bosses, so who can guarantee that our earnings will rise in real terms?" Qi Silin, a worker in north China's Henan Province, asked in the light of his company's ailing business.

Hu Angang, a 18th Congress delegate and professor at Tsinghua University, said that "By common prosperity, we mean that wherever people live, either in urban or rural areas and either in eastern coastal areas or in western hinterlands, as either workers or farmers, everyone can live relatively rich lives, have access to relatively high-quality public services and share the fruits of development on an equal footing."

"It relates to various aspects of the country's future distribution system reform," Liu Shangxi said. There is still a lot to do in terms of primary and secondary distribution. In terms of employee wages, companies may raise the minimum income standard, the "security line" for worker survival, and at the same time, provide more training to improve productivity. As for the unemployed, the state has the responsibility to strengthen their vocational and professional training, with a view to increasing their chances of obtaining well paid jobs. As for low-income workers and farmers, the state should increase subsidies within its financial capacity while for privately run companies, structural tax reduction policies should be implemented. In addition, the state could further increase transfer payments and improve basic social security systems, so the public can pay less for their future, which equals an increase in disposal incomes.

To raise incomes, particularly among middle-and-low income earners, is only one aspect of common prosperity. "The gap between the rich and the poor relates to a gap in the possession of wealth, resulting from the gap between incomes, property and consumption. To realize common prosperity, the key lies in narrowing the gap of property possession," Liu said.

"For example, during the process of urbanization, the value of farm land is increased by property developers while farmers only benefit by a very small fraction." Removing the gap in property inequality depends on the improvement of relevant systems.

Zheng Jianguo, Director of the Department of Finance of Shanxi Province, also a delegate at the 18th CPC National Congress, believes the doubling of income relies on economic development, while fairness and common prosperity depends on further reform. Therefore, fiscal finance, taxation and social security should be further adjusted, to help balance income distribution.

"The reform of income distribution will affect all classes, so it requires the government's courage and people's support," he said.


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