China's Economic Rebound Contributes to Global Recovery

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on January 18 show China's GDP increased 7.9 percent year on year in the fourth quarter of 2012, higher than the growth rate of the previous quarter, which stood at 7.4 percent.

Qu Hongbin, co-head of Asian economic research at international banking group HSBC, told People's Daily the fact that the country's GDP development was slightly higher than the expected 7.8 percent illustrated China's continued economic recovery. Moreover, there remains potential for economic growth, while a hard landing, previously feared by investors, has not happened. Despite persistent external turbulence, domestic demand will drive China's economic development as a major stabilizer of growth.

Qu believes industrial activity sped up in the fourth quarter of 2012 as domestic demand warmed. In December, industrial value added soared 10.3 percent year on year, the highest in nine months, signaling a clear turnaround that is likely to last in the quarters to come. Inflationary pressure will remain under control because the rebound in China's current economic cycle is relatively moderate and economic development has yet to reach its full potential, he added, calling for the continuation of fiscal and monetary policies in support of stable growth.

Bloomberg News reported on January 18 that buoyed by China's improved economic data, Asian stocks rose broadly following two days of decline. Since the country is Australia's largest trade partner, yields on 10-year Australian national bonds climbed following the announcement that China's economy had picked up steam. The S&P GSCI, a measurement of commodity performance, rose to the highest level since October 19, 2012. Oil and gold prices as well as copper figures on the London market went up by various margins, given that China is the world's largest metal and energy consumer. Bloomberg News predicted the growth momentum of the Chinese economy, which is experiencing a cyclic recovery, will continue in the first two quarters this year.

Liu Ligang, an economist with Australia's ANZ Bank, said optimistic sentiments about the Chinese economy began to spread after the release of data for the fourth quarter of 2012. With commodity de-stocking coming to an end and the real estate market warming up, it is believed that China's economic growth will accelerate in the next two quarters, Liu said, adding that urbanization will also give an enduring impetus to investment growth in the country.

The Wall Street Journal report on January 18 said the higher development rate was evidence that the world's second largest economy has begun to recover after a two-year economic slowdown. The 7.9 percent growth in the last quarter of 2012 hints at around 8 percent up for 2013. Although slower than the double-digit growth China has maintained for most of the past three decades, the expansion remains strong and will be conducive to the recovery of the world economy.

Duncan Freeman, a senior researcher with the Brussels Institute of Contemporary China Studies, said the rebound in GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2012, the first in six months, is an encouraging sign against the backdrop of a sluggish global market. In light of the uncertain prospects in developed economies, China has to rely more on domestic demand to sustain economic growth, he said. At the same time, the country needs to address challenges in promoting economic transition and rebalancing the global system.

An article titled China's Economic Recovery Boosts Stock Markets published on the Chinese-language website of British newspaper Financial Times on January 18 said the rebound of China's GDP growth to 7.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 further confirmed that the economic slowdown has bottomed out. It is predicated that the Chinese Government would frequently issue policies on promoting economic restructuring in 2013, leading to increasingly positive market expectations.


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