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China confirms V-shaped economic recovery
December-12-2009

Although the strong economic data partly resulted from the depressing year-earlier figures, which had brought down the comparison base, China's economy outlook is optimistically improving, said Wang.

China is undergoing a V-shaped recovery, the bottom of which had appeared in March and April this year, she said.

INFLATION OR INFLATION EXPECTATION?

The rise in CPI, though in line with previous forecasts, had sparked concerns over potential inflation risks as possible property prices bubbles had been heatedly debated among economic analysts.

However, Sheng quashed the existence of an inflation problem and said the rise in CPI was a result of surging food prices and housing costs.

Food prices, which account for about a third of the CPI, went up by 3.2 percent year on year in November, while housing costs, including rents, construction expenses and property management fees, rose 0.8 percent month on month in the same period.

Sheng attributed the rising food prices to earlier snowfall this year, which disrupted transportation, and said resource prices, including electricity, water and natural gas, had brought up housing costs.

The positive CPI was based on a lower comparison figure in the corresponding period last year together with the strong economic rebound and rising demand, said Zhuang Jian, a senior economist with the Asian Development Bank.

"A 0.6-percent rise is a very slight growth, even if there would be an inflation, it is a moderate and tolerable one," he said.

But inflation expectations were strong, said Wang Tao, analyst with the UBS Securities, who attributed the upward trend to this year's credit boom and a rapid growth in property prices, which is not included in the CPI.

China had pumped a total of 9.21 trillion yuan (about 1.35 trillion U.S. dollars) into its economy in the first 11 months of the year, with new yuan-denominated lending in November standing at 294.8 billion yuan, the People's Bank of China, the central bank, said Friday.

At the Central Economic Work Conference, the country's key annual economic planning meeting, the government put managing inflation prospects as one of its priorities for next year's economic work, along with ensuring a stable and relatively fast economic growth and adjusting economic structure.

"For China, deflation fear is gone, and inflation expectation is something that should be dealt with caution now," said Yuan Gangming, an economic researcher at Tsinghua University.

MORE FOCUS ON ECONOMY RESTRUCTURING

The encouraging November data further guaranteed the achievement of an 8-percent economic growth target this year, leaving the government more room to adjust the economic development pattern.

At the Central Economic Work Conference, the government decided to focus more on transforming the economic development pattern next year while maintaining stable and comparatively fast economic growth.

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