The South China Sea conundrum and prospects for the China-ASEAN FTZ

By Dong Chunling

China Today, October 13, 2014

Territorial disputes in the South China Sea in recent years between China and ASEAN countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines notwithstanding, China-ASEAN relations remain very much on the track of peaceful development, mutual-benefit, and win-win cooperation. China recently raised new proposals on handling tensions in the South China Sea, so further diminishing possibilities that the issue may obstruct China and ASEAN member nations' advance towards economic and strategic cooperation. The U.S. is hence unlikely to achieve its goal of containing China, fragmenting ASEAN, and interfering in East Asian integration.

U.S. Intentions

Disputes between China and some of its neighbors over certain islands in the South China Sea are a long-standing issue. China has made clear its stance: it will not cede sovereignty but is willing to shelve differences and conduct joint development of the disputed region with other concerned parties. From the 1970s onward for an extended period, the issue never became heated. Although contentions arose every now and then they were resolved through diplomatic measures, and the situation in the South China Sea remained largely stable.

After its high-profile return to the Asia-Pacific region in 2009, the U.S. accelerated military deployments and increased diplomatic input in the region. Since 2010 there has occurred a rapid succession of antagonistic events, including the sinking of the ROK's Cheonan and spats over the Diaoyu Islands. By hyping these incidents and holding frequent military maneuvers, South Korea and Japan have tilted towards the U.S., and relations between China and Vietnam and the Philippines have become strained. Catch phrases associated with the East Asia situation are consequently changing from "economy, cooperation, and win-win" to "security, suspicion, and zero-sum." Moreover, the U.S.-led Asia-Pacific alliance, a Cold War legacy, is predominant in the American version of regional economic integration, wherein the U.S. intends to replace the 10+3 (10 member countries of the ASEAN plus China, Japan and the Republic of Korea) mechanism and the free trade zone mechanism between China, Japan and ROK with its Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP). It will thus absorb the East Asia integration process into a U.S.-dominated framework.