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US-Gulf summit to kick off without key leaders

Xinhua, May 14, 2015

• U.S. President Barack Obama is set to hold a summit of Gulf nations this week, but it is overshadowed by the absence of several key leaders amid rumors of rift over the U.S. handling of its ties with Iran.

  The meetings are slated to begin at the White House on Wednesday and the Camp David retreat on Thursday, and are the first such talks in some time of the U.S. with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which includes Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. It is also the first meeting of these countries with U.S. President Obama after the U.S. reached a framework for an agreement on limiting Iran's nuclear program.

  But except for the leaders of Kuwait and Qatar, four other leaders of the six-member GCC countries declined the U.S. invitation to attend.

  Saudi Arabia's King Salman, a crucial leader in the region, even decided to skip the summit at the eleventh hour and send Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the summit instead.

  Bahrain, an important regional ally that hosts the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet, on Sunday announced the country's crown prince will head its delegation, not the king. Oman's sultan, who serves as middle man between the U.S. and Iran, will also forgo attendance, sending instead his deputy prime minister. The sultan recently returned home after receiving medical treatment.

  While the White House denies this as a snub, U.S. experts said Gulf countries obviously are concerned about how the Obama administration is handling the nuclear negotiations with Iran.

  Gulf leaders fret over what they view as Tehran's increasing influence in the region and will be seeking better security guarantee from the U.S. amid those perceived threats. They will also be expected to discuss new weapons deals and plans for missile defense systems.

  The summit also comes amid a surge in radical Islam in the Middle East, most notably Islamic State (IS), which has overtaken vast swaths of Iraq and Syria and has made leaders in the region nervous.

  Wayne White, former deputy director of the State Department's Middle East Intelligence Office, told Xinhua that the basic objection of the kings of Bahrain and Saudi Arabia is the U.S.- Iran nuclear deal. Moreover, it also seems likely that a more robust, binding U.S. defensive guarantee in writing that they want from Obama will not be forthcoming.

  Critics blast the U.S. deal with Iran as too soft on Iran, and fear the Islamic republic could obtain nuclear weapons despite a deal intended to prevent this. For its part, Iran said its nuclear program is peaceful.

  White said the absence of the highest GCC players will detract somewhat from deal-making, adding that various aspects of the Iran issue will dominate the talks.

  But neither side is likely to get what they want: the GCC will not secure a much stronger U.S. security guarantee, and likely only get ramped up intelligence and defense cooperation plus some useful arms deals, all aimed at Iran, White said.

  Likewise, the U.S. side will not be able to completely push aside GCC opposition to an Iran nuclear deal, nor broader GCC doubts about the U.S. over perceived failures to confront Syria and Iran in the region in recent years, White said.

  Since the Saudis very much lead the GCC pack, King Salman's absence will be critical. He is sending Crown Prince Muhammed bin Nayef who, because of a stunning reshuffle by Salman of the Saudi leadership two weeks ago, has been Crown Prince only since April 29, White noted.

  Nayef does have good working ties to Washington on defense and security matters in his capacity as interior minister since 2012, but the Saudis also may come without their highly capable, savvy former foreign minister of 40 years, Saud al-Feisal, who was removed in that same reshuffle.

  Simon Henderson, director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at the Washington Institute, told Xinhua he expects platitudes to come out of the meetings, as the U.S. would love to get Gulf nations' support for an Iran deal, but in the absence of open support, the U.S. will accept silence.

  James Phillips, a Middle East expert at the Heritage Foundation, told Xinhua that Saudi King Salman evidently did not like what he heard U.S. Secretary of State Kerry say on his recent trip and pulled out, taking King Hamad of Bahrain with him.

  "The Saudis don't like the Obama administration's soft line on Iran, Obama's vacillating policy on Syria and half-hearted support in the Yemen crisis," Philips said.

  "I don't expect much to come out of the talks, except for perhaps a greater GCC commitment to missile defense and some sort of U.S. rhetorical security guarantee. The summit is likely to produce increased cooperation against IS, rather than Iran," he said.

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