Opinion     

The day after a typical British revolution: dispatch from UK

China.org.cn, June 27, 2016

• This is not an easy column to write, not because every columnist here is drained and has been awake for almost two days now, but due to the sheer number of events that have occurred. No adjective is worthy of use; seismic, political earthquake, an event unparalleled in modern history – all seems cliché. Journalists, policy makers, pollsters stunned, BBC, SKY, ITV, every channel's and newspaper's predictions failed, showcasing how out of touch everyone was with the British masses. Even at 2:30 in the morning, YouGov was showing Remain with comfortable win; by 5:30, England and Wales had voted Out, while London, Scotland and Ireland had voted In.

  Everyone is calling for calm, and the head of German industries is lobbying to give Britain special powers, because otherwise Germany's economy is going to be ruined. The British government and the EU are trying their best to see that nothing changes for EU citizens. The EU here faces a Machiavellian paradox. On one hand, it wants to punish the U.K. and scare off potential populist referendums in other countries, which will prolong the pain for everyone and might trigger other referendums. On the other hand, if it goes too soft, others will think that if the U.K. can do it, so can we.

  But it wasn't supposed to be like this. It was supposed to be a straightforward negotiation with the EU Byzantine bureaucracy, wherein David Cameron would have got concessions against migration and the EU human rights courts. It is accepted on both sides of the debate that not refugees, but uncharted migration, especially from Sub-Saharan Africa and Pakistan, are the biggest demographic threats facing the EU and the U.K. Recent rape scandals and terror attacks increased that siege mentality even further, and people across the EU believe that there's nothing xenophobic or racist in seeking a redress of this issue.

  However, Cameron didn't get what he wanted, and there was no way of satisfying his backbenchers. Added to that, it were the ambitions of Boris Johnson. "The PM deceived the U.K. on the economy," thundered Johnson from his German-made red bus. Jacob Rees Mogg MP said the EU is the biggest experiment against democracy, as it litigates and judges its own cases; and Michael Gove, perhaps the most erudite politician of modern Britain, upped the PM by saying one shouldn't trust the experts, as they were wrong when they said U.K. should abolish Pound and take the Euro, a decision which saved Britain's economy.

  As Britain leaves, the EU might tear itself apart and there may be fresh referendums in at least seven EU countries. If the EU breaks up, London will be the hegemon in Europe and the German domination of Europe will be over. If EU doesn't break up? That might be taken as a symbol that the liberal economic hegemonic order is winning, which might result in even further centralization in Brussels, which might lead to even further ultra-right backlash and a fall of government in at least five countries.

  PM Cameron got his legacy, and posterity might remember him as an honest man who tried his best or as a modern Chamberlain who was too weak against the forces of history. Cameron will leave his seat a diminished man. No matter what happens, it will be a fight decided by a Tory civil war, which has already started and which will only gain strength. Labour, on the other hand, has diminished unfortunately to a fringe player.

  At least in that Cameron can take solace. It's better for his legacy to be loved and hated equally than to be forgotten. The legacy of Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour party now looks increasingly irrelevant, unless this no confidence motion succeeds and a new leader is elected.

  Sumantra Maitra is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

  http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm

  Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors only, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

Copyright © China.org.cn. All Rights Reserved