Norway regards extreme Islamism as greatest threat

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Norway's police intelligence agency PST said on Tuesday it still regards extreme Islamism as the greatest threat to the Scandinavian country.

"We continue to regard extreme Islamism as the greatest terrorist threat to Norwegian interests, and consider it possible that in the course of 2016 attempts will be made to carry out terrorist attacks against targets in Norway," PST said in its annual National Threat Assessment.

The agency said attacks with simple weapons or on symbolic targets could be the most likely scenarios for an attempted attack in Norway and there is a lower risk that random civilians will be the target of such an attack.

"We consider that the largest and most important group of actors who present an Islamist threat to Norway in 2016, as in previous years, consists of individuals who are inspired by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and to some extent also al-Qaida," it said.

At the same time, the PST considers the threat from right-wing milieus to be increasing as the asylum issue is fuelling right-wing activity, radicalisation and recruitment.

But right-wing extremism poses a lower risk of terrorism than extreme Islamism because the milieus continue to suffer from poor organisation, internal conflicts and constant changes in leadership and there is no significant external ideological agent corresponding to ISIL or al-Qaida, the agency said.

The threat from right-wing extremists comes therefore primarily from lone actors and small groups in or outside the milieus, it added.

As for the issue of state intelligence activity, the PST said foreign intelligence services will continue to work in and against Norway in 2016 and there are a number of factors that make Norway an interesting intelligence target.

Norway "has rich natural resources and an important strategic location in the north, is a member of NATO, has technological expertise in a number of areas, participates in peace and human rights work and is at times engaged in various conflict areas," it said.

The Norwegian police intelligence agency considers Russia's capacity for and intention to carry out espionage against Norway as having the greatest potential for harming Norway and Norwegian interests.

"The activities of Russian intelligence services are partly steered by long-term Russian security interests. The areas of defence, security and preparedness in Norway are a target for these services, and our capacity in these areas is the subject of continual surveillance," the PST said.

"Our assessment is that the aim of these activities is to facilitate Russian military dispositions in a future security policy scenario," it said. "The results of such intelligence activity could therefore ultimately threaten key Norwegian interests and Norway's control over its own territory."

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