Unclear situation in Zimbabwe raises concerns

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People walk past an armored vehicle on a street in Harare, capital of Zimbabwe, Nov. 15, 2017. [Photo/Xinhua] 

An unclear political situation is unfolding in Zimbabwe as its first and incumbent President Robert Mugabe has since early Wednesday been reportedly put under house arrest by the military.

Media reports said several loud explosions were heard early Wednesday in the central area of Zimbabwe's capital Harare, in addition to gunfire near Mugabe's private residence. While pledging to ensure the security of 93-year-old Mugabe and his wife Grace, Zimbabwe's military said on state TV that "this is not a military takeover of government."

Zimbabwe Defence Forces Major General SB Moyo makes an announcement on state broadcaster ZBC, in this still image taken from a Nov. 15, 2017 video. [Photo/VCG] 

"We are only targeting criminals around him (Mugabe) who are committing crimes that are causing social and economic suffering in the country," said army Chief of Staff Sibusiso Moyo, who also said the development was "another level" in the military's response to the political situation in the southern African country since a statement was made by Defense Forces commander Constantino Chiwenga on Monday.

Chiwenga said purges against senior ruling party officials should end "forthwith" in a statement issued after Mugabe last week fired Vice President and deputy chief of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front Emmerson Mnangagwa, his political ally for more than 40 years, on allegations of disloyalty and deceit.

While pledging allegiance to Mugabe, Chiwenga also warned at a press conference on Monday that the military would step in if the revolution that brought Zimbabwe independence was under threat.

How the political situation in Zimbabwe would evolve has raised grave concerns in its neighbors and international community. Some political analysts in neighboring South Africa emphasized the Zimbabwean military's continued respect for Mugabe as a crucial factor.

Professor Sipho Seepe, former special advisor to South Africa's defense ministry, said one cannot simply look at the incidents in Zimbabwe while ignoring the complexity of the problem.

"What cannot ever be discounted, even after the military has left the barracks and taken this action, is that there is still tremendous respect for President Mugabe and the role he has played," he said.

"This is clearly seen in the statements that have been made by the military commanders who have made statements in public when they stated that President Mugabe is still the commander in chief of the armed forces," said Seepe.

While this is a difficult situation, there are nevertheless several clear mechanisms for engagement which could lead to an outcome most people would accept, according to Seepe.

In his eyes, the good personal relationship between South African President Jacob Zuma and Mugabe will open a way for mediation towards a peaceful settlement.

A soldier and an armored vehicle patrol on a street in Harare, capital of Zimbabwe, Nov. 15, 2017. [Photo/Xinhua] 

"Most people in the region want a dignified exit for Mugabe, so I think there will now be arrangements to facilitate that," Seepe added.

Political analyst Stan Henkeman noted that "Zimbabwe is currently on a knife-edge," and the military has taken sides.

He said the huge challenge now was "the impact of the events in Zimbabwe on the region, and on the institutions in the continent."

"The issue before us is how this is going to be dealt with in the African Union and in SADC," he noted.

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has called for an urgent foreign ministers meeting to be held on Thursday to discuss the political and security situation in Zimbabwe.

On Zimbabwe's situation, Zuma, who is also the current SADC chairperson, has repeatedly called for calm and restraint, and urged the Zimbabwean military to ensure that peace and stability are not undermined.

Zuma said Wednesday his special envoys -- South Africa's defense and security ministers -- will go to Zimbabwe to meet with Mugabe and the military leaders, and will then visit Angola to brief President Joao Lourenco, chairperson of the SADC Organ on Politics, Defense and Security, on Zimbabwe's situation.

The SADC will continue to monitor the situation in Zimbabwe closely, Zuma said.

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