Demographic trends threaten global progress

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Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation launches its second annual "Goalkeepers Data Report."[Photo courtesy of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation]

The Seattle-based Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation launched today its second annual "Goalkeepers Data Report", highlighting demographic trends that could stall unprecedented progress in reducing global poverty. 


While at least one billion people have lifted themselves out of poverty over the past 20 years, rapid population growth in the poorest countries, particularly in Africa, puts future progress at risk. The number of extremely poor people in the world could stop its two-decade decline, and could even rise, the report warns.


Despite the sobering projections, Bill and Melinda Gates express optimism that today's growing youth populations could help drive progress. Investing in the health and education of young people in Africa could unlock productivity and innovation, leading to a "third wave" of poverty reduction following the first wave in China and the second in India.


They declare: "The conclusion is clear: To continue improving the human condition, our task now is to help create opportunities in Africa's fastest-growing, poorest countries." 


"Goalkeepers: The Stories Behind the Data 2018"  was co-authored and edited by Bill and Melinda Gates and produced in partnership with the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. 


It reveals that poverty within Africa is concentrating in just a handful of countries that are among the fastest-growing in the world. By 2050, more than 40 percent of the extremely poor people in the world will live in just two countries: Democratic Republic of the Congo and Nigeria, the report predicted.


Through essays by experts and journalists, it examines promising approaches in health and education, highlighting ways that young people could help transform the continent in the belief that a focus on developing "human capital," in sub-Saharan Africa could increase its GDP by more than 90 percent by 2050.


Each year, the report tracks 18 data points from the UN Sustainable Development Goals, or Global Goals, including child and maternal deaths, stunting, access to contraceptives, HIV, malaria, extreme poverty, financial inclusion, and sanitation. 


In family planning, it argues that if every woman in sub-Saharan Africa were empowered to have the number of children she wants, the projected population increase could be up to 30 percent smaller, from 4 billion to 2.8 billion. Most critically, this would enable more girls and women to expand their horizons, stay in school longer, have children later, earn more as adults, and invest more in their children. 


In regard to agriculture, James Thurlow, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, estimates that by doubling agricultural productivity, Ghana could cut poverty in half, create hundreds of thousands of jobs, and drive economic growth. 


The Foundation plans to produce the Goalkeepers Data Report every year through 2030, timing it to the annual gathering of world leaders in New York City for the UN General Assembly.

 

This year, a Goalkeepers event will be held in New York on Sept. 26, when dynamic young leaders from government, business, technology, media, entertainment, and the non-profit sector will discuss innovations and approaches to achieve the 17 Global Goals. 


The previous night, a Goalkeepers Global Goals Awards ceremony will be held to celebrate outstanding youth-focused work around the world.

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