Spotlight: U.S., Iran closer to nuke deal despite Republicans' threat to derail
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E-mail Xinhua, April 28, 2015
As U.S. and Iranian negotiators try to hammer out the final details of a nuclear deal, the White House is at loggerheads with some Republican lawmakers who are bent on derailing the deal.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif met Monday on the sidelines of a United Nations conference on nuclear non-proliferation, sitting down at the Iranian UN Ambassador's New York home.
After the meeting, Kerry said the two sides were closer than ever to a historic agreement, saying the "entire world will be safer" if a deal can be struck, but added that the work is far from complete and "key issues remain unresolved."
The U.S. and Iran have been engaged in talks over the latter's controversial nuclear program, which critics say is intended to build nuclear weapons, although Iran maintains the program is peaceful.
Earlier this month Iran and the six world powers came to a tentative agreement in Switzerland, whereby Tehran agreed to curb sensitive nuclear work for at least 10 years in exchange for an end to international sanctions that have wrecked its economy.
But Republican opponents in U.S. Congress are taking aim at the deal, contending that U.S. President Barack Obama's administration has been too soft on Iran. Presidential contender Senator Marco Rubio wants to require Tehran to officially recognize the state of Israel.
Republican Senator John Barrasso wants the Obama administration to verify that Tehran is not sponsoring terrorists that are targeting the U.S. The White House sees these amendments as potentially damaging to the talks, and contends that Republicans are bringing unrelated issues in to the nuclear negotiations.
Rubio has recently indicated that he would push for Congressional votes on a number of his proposed amendments to the Iran deal, including a measure to free a U.S. reporter for the Washington Post who has been imprisoned in Iran for the past several months, as well as other Americans jailed in Iran.
But for all their bluster over the deal, Republican opponents may not have the votes needed to stop the deal going through, admitted House Speaker John Boehner, of the Republican Party, at an off-the-record event over the weekend.
Over the weekend, former President George W. Bush broke silence on U.S. policy on the Middle East and slammed Obama, saying he was being naive about Iran, straying from his usual protocol of not criticizing the current U.S. commander-in-chief.
Analysts said such statements from a former president could carry much weight, far more than Obama's usual critics, such as pundits and Republican lawmakers, often viewed as blasting Obama merely in a bid to win political points.
STRONG INCENTIVES FOR IRAN TO COMPLY
Meanwhile, despite aims to undercut the talks, the negotiations appear to be moving ahead smoothly. Top Iranian nuclear negotiator Abbas Araqchi said Friday that the talks were moving slowly toward a deal ahead of the June 30 deadline.
Larry Hanauer, senior international policy analyst at RAND Corporation, told Xinhua that the deal cut earlier this month will stop Iranian weapons-related research and enrichment activities for 10 to 15 years, cutting off all paths to a bomb and extending the time it would take for Iran to develop a weapon covertly -- from 2 or 3 months to a full year.
International inspectors will have to verify that Iran has met its key commitments before it receives meaningful sanctions relief, which will give Iran a strong incentive to comply, Hanauer said.
If the agreement can indeed prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon for 15 years or more, it will be far more effective and less costly - in terms of money, lives, and American influence - than a military campaign that would mire the U.S. in another Middle East war, Hanauer said.
The weakest element of the deal is that it will depend on the effectiveness of inspection and verification measures, he noted.
But if Iran's compliance cannot be verified, it will not receive the economic benefits of the deal, which it desperately wants and needs. Thus, Iran will be highly motivated to meet its obligations, he said.
Last week, tensions appeared to escalate between the U.S. and Iran as U.S. naval vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz to the Persian Gulf, causing a convoy of nine Iranian vessels to sail back to Iran.
The brief naval buildup and subsequent dissipation has not threatened to derail the nuclear negotiations between the two countries, experts said.
"The presence of U.S. warships is not enough to antagonize U.S.-Iran relations greatly or derail the nuclear negotiations," said Alireza Nader, a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation.
"Both the United States and Iran have too much at stake on the nuclear issue to let Yemen interfere with negotiations," he said. Endi
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