Roundup: Weakened Merkel faces challenges in reshaping Europe, say experts
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E-mail Xinhua, September 26, 2017
by Maria Vasileiou
THE HAGUE, Sept. 25 (Xinhua) -- Weakened mainly because of a far-right surge in Sunday's German election, Angela Merkel will face serious challenges in promoting deeper European integration with French President Emmanuel Macron, experts say.
"Merkel has secured a fourth term as chancellor, but emerged weakened, facing difficult coalition talks and reduced chances to proceed with a compromising attitude towards Macron's demands for a more integrated Europe," said Adriaan Schout, coordinator of European Union (EU) affairs at Clingendael, the Hague-based institute for international relations.
"Germany's liberals, who are most likely to become coalition partners, have a critical attitude towards a more integrated European Union, making it difficult for Merkel to support such plans," Schout noted.
In Sunday's election, Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party along with its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) recorded its worst election result since after the Second World War, winning only 239 seats (33 percent) in the 598-seat Bundestag, down from 311 seats, according to preliminary results.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by former European Parliament president Martin Schulz, came second, gaining around 21 percent of the vote. But following the result, Schulz pledged to abandon the so-called "grand coalition" with the conservatives, which has governed Germany over eight of the past 12 years.
The anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) came third, gaining about 13 percent of the vote, above what pre-election polls had predicted. It is the first time after World War II that a far-right party has entered the German parliament.
The result points to the direction of more internal tensions and more polarization within Germany, making it more difficult for Merkel to mesh with Macron's demands for reforms to deepen the EU and the eurozone, explained Schout.
"The result of the German vote reduces the chances of major reforms as French President Macron has pledged," said Zsolt Darvas, senior fellow at the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel.
The French president, who has pledged to bring about a "radical reform" of Europe, is expected to fully develop his ideas in a speech at Sorbonne University in Paris on Tuesday. He has made calls for a eurozone budget that would finance investments and stabilize the European economy during crises, as well as a eurozone finance minister and parliament.
"Emmanuel Macron has a long list of reform ideas, but I'm afraid little progress will be made," said Darvas. "The idea of a permanent Eurogroup president might be enhanced, but the position will not have the scope the French president has pledged."
As far as the prospect of a eurozone budget, Darvas called it a "no-go idea."
"Even before the elections, Merkel was sceptical about the idea of a common budget, referring only to the possibility of a small budget," he said.
"Scepticism runs high, not only among the liberals, but also among members of her own party, making it almost impossible for Merkel to proceed with such an idea," he explained. FDP leader Christian Lindner has ruled out setting up a common eurozone budget calling it "a red line for us."
If the FDP becomes a coalition partner, it will be difficult for Merkel to realize such a move, said Darvas.
Immigration could be another issue that would cause Merkel difficulty. The FDP is following a harder line on asylum policy as do members of the conservative party, while Merkel and the Greens are opposed.
"The AfD's strong performance in combination with the Liberals and the weakening of the two middle parties lead to more fragmentation and a more difficult decision-making process," said Schout. But according to the Dutch EU affairs expert, "it will not make much of a difference regarding 'migration' as Merkel had already sharpened migration policies."
For other EU member states like the Netherlands, who view with caution the revival of the Franco-German axis and the prospect of further deepening the 27-member bloc post Brexit, "it would be easier now to rely on Germany," noted Schout.
"In the wake of the elections, Germany's political scene resembles more of the Dutch political climate and interests, where fragmentation, liberals and a strong far-right party have already been part of the political landscape for a long time," he said. Enditem
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