News Analysis: Prospects for Russia-Japan peace talks dampened by Moscow's toughened stance

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MOSCOW, Jan. 16 (Xinhua) -- Talks on a peace treaty between Russia and Japan are challenged by Moscow's toughened stance on islands disputed between the two countries as no consensus was reached during the latest meeting between their foreign ministers here.

Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono is wrapping up a five-day visit on Wednesday with bilateral differences remaining on the issue of four long-disputed islands. During his talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday, Lavrov insisted on Japan's full recognition of the results of World War II, including Russia's sovereignty over the four islands, which he said is the prerequisite for any progress towards a peace deal.

"This is our basic position and without a step in this direction it is very difficult to expect any progress on other issues," Lavrov told a press conference after the meeting.

Moscow and Tokyo have failed to sign a postwar peace treaty due to their rival claims to the four Pacific islands, called Southern Kurils in Russia and Northern Territories in Japan, the pre-war owner.

According to a joint declaration signed in 1956, the then Soviet Union agreed to return two of the islands under the condition that a bilateral peace treaty is signed, a proposal rejected by Japan.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed during their meeting last November in Singapore to open peace talks based on the 1956 joint declaration. They are scheduled to meet again on Jan. 22 in Moscow.

Kono's visit was intended to make preparations for the upcoming summit as well as to start the first round of peace talks based on the Putin-Abe consensus.

"The lack of a coherent overall approach between Russia and Japan, which there appeared to be after the meeting of the foreign ministers, indicates that there are still many obstacles to the conclusion of a peace treaty," said Dmitry Streltsov, head of Oriental Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.

It is believed that the two countries have great differences regarding the disputed islands because of different objectives. Japan mentions a transfer of the islands together with a peace treaty, while Russia is talking about an agreement on good neighborliness and cooperation.

"There can be only one compromise: Japan should in a legally binding document recognize Russia's sovereignty over all the Kuril islands, while Russia within the framework of the same document should agree to fulfill the conditions of the 1956 declaration," Streltsov said.

Instead of making concessions, Moscow and Tokyo are taking tougher stances. Russian experts cited Lavrov's statements to stress Russia's sovereignty over the four islands as unquestionable and noted that the statements were delivered in a much more rigid manner than before.

"We have been waiting for a clear and unambiguously articulated position for a long time. Before that, the position of the Russian authorities was rather vague," Anatoly Koshkin, professor at the Moscow-based Institute of Oriental Studies, told Xinhua.

He added that Lavrov's statements have worked to calm the Russian public, who reacted very negatively to Tokyo's recent remarks about the need to prepare migrants for a transfer of the Kuril islands to Japan.

"It is clear that we should not create a precedent that Japan can gain some territorial concessions from us ... Any significant concessions will be perceived as weakness," said Victor Kuzminkov, a senior researcher at the Far East branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

In the meantime, experts said Russia's change in tone was intended to pave the way for the upcoming Putin-Abe summit, which is expected to focus on the peace treaty.

"This can mean two things: either an attempt to increase demands on the eve of the summit meeting, or to prepare the ground for abandoning a forced solution to the peace treaty problem," former Russian Ambassador to Japan Alexander Panov said.

If the summit falls short of a consensus, the window of opportunity for solving the problem will be closed for a long time, experts noted.

Nevertheless, the prospects for a peace deal between the two countries do not look good.

"The Russia-Japan talks should now be structured in a way as to come to an agreement to provide free, possibly visa-free access to the islands, and on this basis to move toward the conclusion of a document. But I am not sure the Japanese will buy it," Kuzminkov said.

Meanwhile, there is also the military aspect to the problem. The Kuril islands and the straits between them have a huge military strategic value primarily for the Russian nuclear missile submarines for combat missions in the Pacific.

At Monday's press conference, Lavrov also mentioned the fact that Japan struck a military alliance with the United States in 1960, which has changed the regional situation after the 1956 declaration.

His remarks about Russia's concern about the U.S. military buildup in the region, like the U.S. deployment of the global missile defense system on Japan's territory, once again indicated a near-zero likelihood of territorial concessions, according to the experts.

"I believe that in the foreseeable future the issue of a transfer of these islands to Japan will simply not materialize. It will all boil down to some joint economic activities on the islands or something else of the kind," Koshkin said. Enditem

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