Economic downturn single largest risk for a new debt crisis: study

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BERLIN, Jan. 21 (Xinhua) -- Global economic downturn is single largest risk for a new debt crisis, a study published by the private bank Berenberg and the Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) on Monday showed.

Among the risk factors that could lead to a new debt crisis, the study, "Sovereign Debt", also lists the increase of interest rates, foreign debts and the ageing population in many western countries.

The "mountain of debt" in most countries would remain high despite the good economic situation in recent years, according the study. However, there will be no new global debt crisis "if the world sees another one or two years of good economic growth," said Joern Quitzau, macroeconomic specialist at the Berenberg bank.

According to the study, Germany is one of the few countries that have achieved a "real turnaround". Germany's debt fell from 66.8 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2008 to around 60 percent in 2018.

Many other euro zone countries were facing a completely "different situation". Overall, sovereign debt in the euro zone increased by 14.5 percentage points to just under 85 percent of GDP over the period from 2008 to 2018.

Debt management had been slipping out of focus slightly in recent years due to the strong performance of the global economy, this would not mean that the problem had been solved, the study warned.

"Italy could be the first country to get into serious difficulties in the next recession unless the government moves away from its economic policy plans beforehand," summarized Quitzau. Italy's debt ratio stood at more than 130 percent of GDP in 2017. Enditem

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