Spotlight: As Idlib truce not expected to be long-lasting, Turkey faces huge challenges

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ISTANBUL, Aug. 31 (Xinhua) -- Turkey faces huge challenges and pressure, as the Russia-announced cease-fire is not expected to last for long in the rebel-held Idlib province of Syria, analysts said.

Russia announced on Friday that Syrian government forces would unilaterally observe a truce in Idlib's de-escalation zone as of 06:00 a.m. local time (0300 GMT) on Saturday.

Turkey has now to tackle a fresh wave of refugees as thousands of Syrians have already flocked to the country's southern border amid the Syrian forces' advance against the rebels.

"It's highly unlikely for the cease-fire to be long-lasting," Hasan Koni, an international relations analyst, told Xinhua.

"Where will the jihadists go? No country is willing to let them in," he added, noting Syria would not want them to be part of a political settlement either.

Some 30,000-50,000 rebels, including those backed by Ankara, and more than 3 million civilians are estimated to be present in Idlib province.

"The Idlib question can't be said to have been settled unless what will become of the jihadists there clarifies," said Haldun Solmazturk, a former general.

The truce announcement came after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met on Tuesday with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow in a bid to stop the Russia-backed Syrian army offensive.

A week before the Moscow meeting, a Turkish military convoy driving through Idlib was attacked, supposedly by Syrian jets, leaving three people killed and a dozen others injured.

The issue of rebels and a fresh wave of refugees will pose serious problems for Turkey, stated Solmazturk, who chairs the Incek debates at the Ankara-based 21st Century Turkey Institute.

As the last rebel stronghold in northwestern Syria, Idlib is largely controlled by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an al-Qaida offshoot formerly known as Nusra Front.

Erdogan admitted on Friday that Turkey was not fully satisfied with the latest situation in Idlib where the Syrian army has captured several towns and dozens of villages from the rebels in recent weeks.

"At the moment, (the developments regarding Idlib) are not the way we want," he told reporters.

Acting as a patron of some rebels in Idlib under the so-called Astana deal concluded in 2017 with Russia and Iran, Turkey argues the Idlib issue should be politically settled.

But the analysts believed that Russia and Iran, staunch supporters of the Syrian government, are not likely to leave the settlement of the Idlib issue to a political process.

"I don't expect the cease-fire to last for long," said Solmazturk.

Both analysts said the current truce is simply a final chance given by Russia and Iran to Turkey to harmonize its attitude with theirs, as leaders of the three Astana partners are scheduled to meet in Ankara on Sept. 16 in a bid to iron out their differences over Idlib and Syria in general.

The Syrian army backed by Russia and Iran should be expected to go ahead with its offensive against the rebels following the Ankara summit, both Solmazturk and Koni underlined.

"I don't think the Idlib issue could be definitively settled in the meeting," said Koni, who teaches at Istanbul Kultur University.

Neither should Ankara be expected to change its attitude nor does the jihadists have anywhere to go, he argued.

Following the deadly strike on its military convoy, Ankara said it would not remove any of its military observations posts in Idlib, although the southernmost one has been surrounded by the Syrian army since last week.

The analysts said that the Turkish government may be forced to relocate its observation posts following the Ankara summit.

Russia and Iran may get Turkey to agree to the establishment of a buffer zone along its border to host the refugees fleeing Idlib, said Solmazturk.

"Turkey is in no position to oppose that," he said, while predicting that Turkey's Astana partners would also demand that its 12 military observation posts around Idlib be removed as the Syrian forces continue the offensive to capture the rest of the province.

Turkey set up these observation posts in Idlib based on a failed deal with Russia, under which Ankara should have stopped the rebels from attacking Russian and Syrian army positions.

A buffer zone with a depth of 25-30 km into Syrian territory from the Turkish border would be the best plan against potential threats, Solmazturk said.

Ankara is concerned that some rebels disguised as civilians may also attempt to infiltrate into Turkey with another wave of migrants. Over 1 million Syrians who fled the fighting in Idlib are currently living near the Turkish border.

Turkey has already hosted more than 3.6 million Syrians and a new wave of migrants would simply put too much of a burden on the country.

Before Russia's announcement of the cease-fire, some of those who had fled to the Turkish border protested against Turkey on Friday over its failure to stop the Syrian army's offensive against Idlib.

Some shouted "Treacherous Turkey" during the protest, while Turkish border guards fired warning shots and tear gas to disperse the crowd. Enditem

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