CHICAGO, Jan. 23 (Xinhua) -- Researchers at the University of Illinois (UI) have estimated the mortality costs associated with air pollution in the United States by developing and applying a novel machine learning-based method to estimate the life-years lost and cost associated with air pollution exposure.

By exploiting the daily variation in acute fine particulate pollution exposure driven by changes in wind direction, the researchers found significant effects of exposure on mortality, hospitalizations and medical spending.

About 25 percent of the elderly Medicare population was vulnerable to acute pollution shocks, according to a news release posted on the UI's website this week.

"Our analysis shows that the most vulnerable Medicare beneficiaries are those who suffer from chronic conditions and have high health care spending," said Julian Reif, a UI professor of finance and a faculty member of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs. "We estimate that members of the most vulnerable group -- those with a life expectancy of less than one year -- are over 30 times more likely to die from pollution than the typical Medicare beneficiary."

The scholars also found that increases in particulate matter lead to more emergency room visits, hospitalizations and higher patient spending.

They calculated that the reduction in particulate matter experienced between 1999 and 2013 resulted in elderly mortality reductions worth 24 billion U.S. dollars annually by the end of that period.

"Mortality is only one of many potential costs of air pollution," said David Molitor, another UI professor of finance. "The elderly who aren't dying may engage in other costly activities such as going to the hospital for preventive or emergency care. Those steps may help them avoid death, but it doesn't mean that pollution has no cost to their health or finances."

Notably, the researchers also found that the failure to adjust for the pre-existing health of those who die from an acute pollution event tends to overstate the mortality-reduction benefits of decreasing air pollution.

"Another way of thinking about our characterization of who dies from pollution is as an index of vulnerability," Molitor said. "By understanding who is most vulnerable to pollution, local policies and actions can be designed to better protect lives and to improve population resilience to pollution events."

The study was published in the American Economic Review. Enditem

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