News Analysis: 2020 likely to be 'worst year on record' for Italian agriculture due to heat, pandemic

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ROME, Aug. 8 (Xinhua) -- Another scorching summer is combining with the impacts of the global coronavirus outbreak to form a one-two blow that is expected to set back the Italian economy for years.

As of the end of July, temperatures have been higher than average in 16 of Italy's 20 regions, according to data from the Italian Meteorological Society, known as IFMS.

That is not new. Average temperatures in Italy have steadily risen over the last two decades, and statistics show that eight of the ten hottest years ever recorded in Italy have taken place in the last 11 years.

This summer, high temperatures have regularly topped 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit) all across Italy, except for in the mountainous regions in the northern part of the country. Temperatures have even risen above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) with regularity, a level that until recent years had been infrequent in most parts of the country.

Economists said the hot weather could act as a drag on the country's fragile economic recovery, as it seeks to restart commerce and production after weeks of a national lockdown in response to the coronavirus. Italy was the first European country hit hard by the pandemic.

According to the Italian National Institute of Statistics, or ISTAT, Italy's economy shrunk by 17.3 percent in the second quarter compared to the same period in 2019, though most analysts expect the economy to strengthen in the third quarter, finishing the year with an annualized contraction of around 10 percent.

"When temperatures rise to a certain point, it means people are less likely to leave their homes to shop or go to a restaurant or travel to another city," Javier Noriega, an economist with investment bankers Hildebrandt and Ferrar, told Xinhua. "More importantly, it has a major impact on agricultural production, which affects everything from the production of cheese and wine to vegetables and animal feed."

Italy's agricultural sector is getting hit from multiple fronts, according to Lorenzo Bazzana, head of the economics section for Coldiretti, Italy's main agricultural association.

"At one point, the lockdown meant Italian farmers had to make do with 200,000 fewer workers than in a normal year, due to coronavirus travel restrictions," Bazzana said in an interview, noting that the situation has improved since then, though the agricultural workforce is still "probably tens of thousands of workers" smaller than normal.

"That means some crops were left in the field, uncollected," Bazzana said. "Now, with the hot weather, it's added a new set of serious problems we have to address with less time and fewer workers to do it."

Bazzana said that all told, 2020 is likely to go down as "the worst year on record for Italian agriculture."

He said some Italian farmers risk going out of business, adding to unemployment rolls and impacting exports and the reliable availability of certain products in Italian supermarkets. Enditem

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