Roundup: CBOT agricultural futures in correction

0 Comment(s)Print E-mail Xinhua, May 16, 2021
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CHICAGO, May 15 (Xinhua) -- Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures were in correction on profit taking in the past week following U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

But Chicago-based research company AgResource stays bullish of agricultural futures into August with lows in CBOT grain markets forecast in the week ahead.

CBOT corn futures experienced the first meaningful correction in 16 weeks. The correction was due amid historically overbought technical conditions. This is and will remain a big market, and AgResource warns of extreme volatility well into the end of summer. There are not many weeks in history where corn prices drop nearly 88 cents.

Corn's fundamental input stays bullish. Record strong interior U.S. basis levels have not triggered producer selling. China also remains active securing new crop corn from both the United States and Ukraine with import sales growing daily.

Corn is likely to weaken early in the week ahead, but this is not a place to turn bearish ahead of the growing season, and AgResource expects new highs by August.

U.S. and world wheat futures ended sharply lower on broad-based commodity liquidation. Soil moisture will not be an issue between now and late May in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Colorado.

However, the outlook stays bullish as world corn inventories erode further and drought intensifies across the U.S. Northern Plains, Pacific Northwest, and Canadian Prairies. A new threat is also emerging in the form of structural heat/dryness across eastern Ukraine and southern Russia.

From June onward, heat and dryness will be worrisome. The break provides an opportunity for end users to extend wheat coverage into late year.

Soybean futures rallied into the May WASDE report and then declined following corn. Funds booked profits on ideas that acreage will expand 700,000 acres to 1.5 million acres in the June Acreage Report.

The weekly drought monitor showed that 20 percent of the U.S. soybean crop is in drought conditions. It is early in the growing season, but freshly planted soybean crops across most of the Dakotas and northern Iowa are in immediate need of rain.

AgResource stays bullish on the outlook of soybean. Enditem

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