CHICAGO, March 26 (Xinhua) -- CBOT agricultural futures ended higher last week on Russia-Ukraine conflict premium and supported by market demand.

Chicago-based research company AgResource looks for extreme trade volatility to continue based on the uncertainty and fast political changes that surround the Russia-Ukraine conflict. A bullish landscape for commodities will persist, but there can be sharp downward corrections that last for weeks.

Russia is shifting its focus to the Donbass region in Eastern Ukraine. This could allow farmers in Western and Central Ukraine to be more active with spring seeding. But questions abound on Ukraine's export ability beyond its rail line to the east.

Corn futures ended higher this week as additional Russia-Ukraine conflict premium was added. U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) stocks and seeding data to be released on March 31 will be critical to spring price direction, while the monthly chart reflects that corn has reached its initial long-term price target of 7.80-8.40 U.S. dollars. USDA report could push the market to a new rally high.

South American corn export premiums are in decline with Brazilian weather aiding the potential of its winter corn crop. The crop is well watered with record yield potential if April and May rains are normal. Back-to-back Brazilian droughts are rare.

It is USDA report and the Brazilian winter corn crop size that loom as April fundamental drivers.

U.S. and European wheat markets ended higher last week. Though spot CBOT futures remain bound to a range of 10.50-11.50 dollars, AgResource suggests that this range does reflect fair values as the market has now digested the loss of the old crop Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports into June. India, Europe and Australia will fill gaps left by the absence of Black Sea surpluses between now and June, and what is most important is whether Black Sea shipments are able to resume from mid-summer onward.

Central U.S. weather contributes to already extreme volatility. Nearby improvement in soil moisture is forecast in Western Europe and across the principal hard red winter (HRW) wheat Belt. However, odds favor the return of abnormal heat and dryness across the U.S. Plains in April as La Nina lingers into late spring.

Both the bulls and bears will struggle for leverage until clarity over the ending of the Russia-Ukraine conflict emerges. The weekly chart shows that additional consolidation is expected.

Soybean futures moved higher last week, supported by the ongoing buying from China and the strengthening of world cash oilseed markets. Rallies in the week ahead will find profit-taking ahead of the month/quarter and key USDA reports.

U.S. soybean exports are in a seasonal decline while the Brazilian exports gather speed as its harvest nears an end. However, an early peak in Brazil's exports is expected, with the pace to fall sharply in the early summer months. This idea is confirmed by historic Brazilian export quotes that indicate that the Brazilian market is nearly sold out. U.S. soybean exports will become active again from June through yearend.

Traders are anxiously waiting for the USDA Prospective Plantings and March Grain Stocks reports. AgResource estimates March 1 soybean stocks at 1,950 million bushels, and new crop planted acres at 89 million acres.

AgResource holds a bullish outlook on breaks, doubting that a market high has been scored as China adds to its forward purchase pace of U.S. soybeans through November. However, a technical break of 0.50-1.00 dollars would not be unusual. Enditem

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