CHICAGO, May 28 (Xinhua) -- CBOT agricultural futures closed mixed in the past week, but the upside trend remains intact, Chicago-based research company AgResource noted.

The duration of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will have significant implications for grain. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will continue its war against inflation with a series of rate hikes into mid-2023.

AgResource stays bullish of grain.

July corn fell to a 45-day low at midweek but recovered amid strength in U.S. and international cash markets. The U.S. market will endure extremely tight supplies by late summer, and the speed at which basis in Brazil and Argentina has rallied suggests production there is well below U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) forecasts.

U.S. weather will dominate CBOT price discovery over the next 90 days. U.S. production will be absorbed rapidly after harvest, and all indications suggest major exporter corn stocks will be record low.

There will be no tolerance for adverse weather. Fair value for corn lies between 7.50-8.50 U.S. dollars with normal Central U.S. weather. December corn is undervalued below 7 dollars unless a record yield is assured. Daily market volatility is extreme with world corn market's tolerance for anything but a record large U.S. corn yield being extremely low.

U.S. wheat futures found support in late week trade amid ongoing weather concerns in the United States, Canada, Europe and China. The long-term wheat outlook stays bullish as reduced supplies collide seasonally with rising global demand. Importers will have to return to the marketplace by mid-June.

Supply rationing is needed, the degree of which will be determined by world weather patterns over the next 45-60 days. There is no sign of needed rainfall in France or across China's primary winter wheat belt. And lingering heavy rains across South Canada, the Dakotas and Minnesota will trim North American spring wheat seeding by 1-2 million acres.

The market has been volatile, but uptrends remain intact in both U.S. and European futures. AgResource maintains that a sustained price range of 12.00-16.00 for Kansas wheat will be established during the autumn and winter months. Concerns over global food crisis are real.

Soybean market marked a week of strong gains. This has not happened since the 2012 drought. Additionally, it is a pending record close for the month of May.

USDA reported last week that national soybean planting was 50 percent complete, 5 percent behind the 5-year average. 2022 is the second latest planted crop since 2015, but current pace is still ahead of the long-term average. Producers were active in planting around the rains, and it is expected that 66-70 percent of the U.S. soybean crop will have been planted by Sunday. However, severe delays continue across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

U.S. cash markets are exceptionally strong driven by historic export bids. Outstanding old crop export sales are historically large, and new crop sales are record large. The U.S. export pace should begin to accelerate by mid-July. Enditem

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