CHICAGO, June 4 (Xinhua) -- CBOT agricultural futures fell in the past week on the news that a marine grain export corridor may be allowed for Ukraine with Turkey as the destination.

As the Russia-Ukraine conflict rages on and may continue into 2023, the duration of the conflict will have significant implications for raw materials markets, including fertilizer, food, and energy supplies and prices.

Chicago-based research company AgResource doubts whether Ukrainian corn will have access to Black Sea ports, though the speculative community has no choice but to liquidate until there is clarity.

AgResource stays bullish, for the U.S. summer weather pattern should form in the next three weeks, adding to grain market upside.

Central U.S. weather is favorable, but heat and dryness are forecast in most extended range models, indicating there will be significant weather scares.

The U.S. ethanol industry has responded to cheaper corn and seasonally rising gasoline use, with spot ethanol production revenue some 0.09 U.S. dollars per gallon above all costs, which is rare. Cash markets are reflecting a tightening of world balance sheets, not a loosening.

Even minor additions or subtractions to the world's exportable surplus will trigger swift and violent CBOT price reactions.

Wheat futures ended sharply lower this week with CBOT futures down 2.30 dollars per bushel from mid-May high. Recent price action shows just how sensitive the market is and will be to perceived changes in supply and demand.

Proposals for a humanitarian grain export corridor in Ukraine, and the freeing up of some 4-5 million metric tons of old crop Ukrainian supplies, dominated price discovery in the past week, leading to massive and widespread long liquidation.

However, AgResource maintains that the odds that this corridor is created are no more than 5 percent as Russia demands sanctions be lifted. Without any concrete evidence that this deal will move forward in the near term, the market must again subtract sizeable tonnages from the world's exportable surplus.

Egypt's tender results this week confirmed that sourcing Russian wheat will be rather difficult amid the lack of insurable freight. Additionally, weather threats remain intact across Europe, China, and south-central Canada.

An early seasonal low is forming in wheat futures. A swift recovery lies ahead post-harvest as millers and importers battle for available supply.

Soybean futures traded in the red for most of last week and were 34.5 cents lower at Friday's close. The U.S. Department of Agriculture last week reported that national soybean planting had reached 66 percent complete, while the progress this week is expected to reach 78-82 percent complete.

U.S. and South American export premiums continue to trade well above last year. At the same time, outstanding U.S. old crop sales are near record large at 365 million bushels and new crop sales are record large at 445 million bushels.

The United States is likely to export a record volume of soybeans in the next 12 months. This keeps the soybean outlook bullish on record demand. Key support rests below 16.50 dollars for July contract and 14.50 dollars for November contract. Any threat to 2022 U.S. soybean yield would push soybean production to new highs above 18.00 dollars. Enditem

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