News Analysis: Sudan's political uncertainty persists as political agreement delayed again

0 Comment(s)Print E-mail Xinhua, April 8, 2023
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KHARTOUM, April 8 (Xinhua) -- Sudan's political landscape remains uncertain as the parties involved in the ongoing political conciliation process have yet to reach a conclusive agreement to resolve the country's protracted crisis.

The signing of the final political agreement between the military and civilian leaders, originally slated for April 1 and postponed to April 6, has been further delayed without a new date set, raising concerns among observers about the potential collapse of the entire political process.

The current political impasse in Sudan dates back to October 25, 2021, when army commander Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan adopted extraordinary measures, dissolving the Sovereign Council and the Council of Ministers, and declaring a state of emergency. This move sparked widespread and persistent protests calling for the restoration of civilian rule.

Following the latest delay, the Forces of Freedom and Change Alliance (FFC), a broad political coalition comprising civilian and rebel groups in Sudan, sought to reassure the public that the postponement does not signify the end of the political process.

"There remains only one outstanding issue in the security and military reform file relating to command and control," FFC Spokesman Yasir Arman said on his Twitter account on Friday.

"The issues of representation at the legislative and sovereign levels in the coming government have been resolved, and only minor issues remain," he said.

However, Sudanese analysts believe that there are underlying differences within both the military-led government and the opposition camp that may further impede the current peace process.

Abdul-Raziq Ziyada, a Sudanese political analyst, expressed concerns that the parties involved in the political process may be downplaying their differences to provide reassurances to the public.

Ziyada noted that the differences between Sudan's two armed forces, namely the Sudanese Army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary force, are "fundamental and significant," particularly with regard to security and military reform.

Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, the leader of the RSF, had participated in Burhan's move to oust the civilian government, but later distanced himself from it and referred to it as a "mistake" in February 2023, indicating a growing rift between him and Burhan.

Moreover, the divergence in viewpoints is not limited to the military factions alone, as the civilian camp itself has struggled to achieve a comprehensive consensus, with significant segments still unwilling to participate in the political process.

The Sudanese streets remain divided, with some parties refusing to negotiate with the military and insisting on the restoration of civilian rule through persistent demonstrations, while other political factions seek to broaden participation in the political process without excluding any political component.

Abdul-Khaliq Mahjoub, a Sudanese political analyst, believes that the division among the civilian camp is a crucial factor in the delay of reaching a political solution.

"If the civilian factions can unify their position and reach a consensus, it will exert pressure on the military and compel them to sign the agreement," Mahjoub told Xinhua.

"The division among the civil forces undermines the current political process and weakens the viability of any political agreement," he added, emphasizing the need for unity and coherence among the civilian forces for effective progress.

On December 5, 2022, Sudan's military and civilian leaders signed a political framework agreement to resolve the political impasse and establish a two-year transitional civilian authority. However, the two sides have failed so far to translate the agreement into a final deal, leaving the political situation in Sudan uncertain and unresolved. Enditem

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