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E-mail Xinhua, March 6, 2024
by Matthew Rusling, Xiong Maoling
WASHINGTON, March 6 (Xinhua) -- U.S. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump swept to victory in their respective party's presidential primaries on "Super Tuesday" when over a dozen states held primary elections, increasing the likelihood of a rematch between the two.
"Super Tuesday" is the biggest day for the primary race of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when approximately one-third of all delegates to the Republican or Democratic conventions are to be distributed.
Fifteen states, including populous California and Texas, and the U.S. territory of American Samoa, held primary elections on the day. Iowa Democrats released the results of their presidential caucus earlier on the day.
As all the other candidates are trailing far behind, it's now almost certain that there will be a rematch between Biden and Trump.
"A rematch means the stakes are high for America," Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Darrell West told Xinhua, as "the visions Trump and Biden have for the country are radically different."
TWO AMERICAS
The two candidates' radically different visions mirror a cavernous gap between urban and rural Americans.
Urban Americans, who tend to vote Democratic, are more liberal than rural folks.
They steer away from firearms and are less religious than their rural counterparts and more of them hold university degrees. Many believe the government should play more of a role in people's lives.
Rural Americans are more conservative. Many believe in the Constitutional right to bear arms, believe in stricter punishment for lawbreakers and are more religious than their urban counterparts. Many are working class and deeply suspicious of the government.
Republicans and Democrats are "highly polarized" on a number of prominent U.S. social and policy issues, according to a Gallup poll released in August last year.
Political polarization since 2003 has increased most significantly on issues related to federal government power, global warming and the environment, education, abortion, foreign trade, immigration, gun laws, the government's role in providing healthcare, and income tax fairness, the poll showed.
It is in the backdrop of this dynamic that the Trump vs. Biden rematch occurs, experts said.
BOTH CANDIDATES UNPOPULAR
At the same time, many Americans have expressed discontent with both candidates.
There are concerns about Biden's age and cognitive reasoning, and many Americans disapprove of Trump's brazen, in-your-face manner of speaking. Many consider him rude and brash, and that does not sit well with independent voters.
"I think it's total madness that the Republican Party is kowtowing to someone who stands for everything that the Republican Party used to be against. He stands for ignoring the rule of law," Emily Messner, an independent voter, told Xinhua at a polling station in Arlington, Virginia Tuesday, adding that the fact that the Republican Party isn't standing up against it is "terrible."
And the fact that the Democratic Party hasn't been able to put up a candidate who's more unifying is also a problem, said Messner.
Marlene Tucker, an independent voter, told Xinhua that she'd like to see some new blood. "I'd like to see someone that can walk across half a mile in under half an hour. I do have some health concerns for Biden and a little bit for Trump," she said.
At a recent Nikki Haley campaign event in Tysons, Virginia, an independent voter who declined to give his name told Xinhua that he supports Haley because "the country needs change."
"Neither the current president nor the past president offers what they should be with the requirements of the job. They have lost their perspective," he said, calling himself "an American patriot."
Crawford Brubaker, who also attended the Haley event, told Xinhua that he thinks "it's really time for next generation of leaders."
In a Reuters/Ipsos poll in late January, 67 percent said they are tired of seeing the same candidates in presidential elections and want someone new. Majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independents share that sentiment.
For Biden, 56.8 percent of Americans disapprove of the job he is doing, while only 39.6 approve, according to latest data from the Real Clear Politics average of polls.
Meanwhile, 52.1 percent of Americans harbor an unfavorable view of Trump, according to the latest polling average from FiveThirtyEight.
"The majority is unhappy that this is the best the system can offer," Clay Ramsay, a researcher at the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland, told Xinhua.
"The rematch will heighten the sense that the system isn't working for ordinary people," Ramsay said.
VOTER TURNOUT
Early exit poll data from "Super Tuesday" reveals vulnerabilities for both Biden and Trump among independent voters, ABC News reported.
Additionally, there are concerns about the level of support Haley's followers would offer Trump in the general election if he secures the Republican presidential nomination over her, the poll showed.
However, the ultimate test of a candidate's popularity is whether voters leave their homes to cast ballots.
"The key thing to watch will be voter turnout on each side," West said.
"That information will provide valuable insight into the upcoming election and which candidate has enthusiasm on its side," West said.
"Of the 16 states that are voting, Colorado, Minnesota, and Virginia are the most interesting for Democrats. These states should be scrutinized for their level of enthusiasm for Biden," Ramsay said.
"Overall turnout is more important than Trump's margin of victory among Republicans in these states," Ramsay added.
Christopher Galdieri, a political science professor at Saint Anselm College, told Xinhua he will be watching whether Trump "underperforms his polling, as he has so far this year." Enditem
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