KUALA LUMPUR, March 19 (Xinhua) -- Economists have foreseen a trade recovery for Malaysia despite that its exports slipped slightly by 0.8 percent year-on-year in February.

Maybank Investment Bank Research said in a note that Malaysia's external trade's positive start of 2024, as per the 3.9 percent exports growth in the first two months, augurs well for the expected rebound in exports this year to support the outlook of firmer 2024 economic growth of 4.4 percent.

"For this year, we currently expect exports and imports to rebound by 4.7 percent and 5.6 percent respectively. A major driver for the projected exports rebound this year is the projected turnaround in the electronics cycle," said the research house.

Meanwhile, UOB Global Economics and Market Research said in a note that Malaysia's January-February export performance reinforces its view that a trade recovery is underway albeit bumpy owing to seasonality effects during the festive period as well as potential disruptions and delays from the Red Sea crisis.

According to the research house, the persistent gains in exports to G3 economies (particularly the United States and Japan) and commodity exports coupled with the improvement in China's latest trade and industrial output as well as the optimistic global trade outlook are positive indications to Malaysia's trade recovery.

"We maintain our full-year export growth outlook at 3.5 percent for 2024, which will be driven by higher exports of electrical and electronic (E&E) products, machinery and commodities," it said.

MIDF Research also maintained its projection that Malaysia's overall goods exports will rebound this year and grow at 5.2 percent.

"Being one of the players in the global production chain, the trend in Malaysia's exports also closely tracked the movement in regional countries' external trade performance; and, we noticed an encouraging turnaround in exports for some regions in the recent months," it said.

While Malaysia will benefit from the pick-up in global demand, MIDF said its downside risks could still negatively affect the trade outlook.

These include risks such as worsening of geopolitical and trade tensions, sharp economic slowdown in major trading partners and prolonged weakness in global production activities.

Similar to exports, MIDF expects Malaysia's imports to pick up this year and rebound to 4.4 percent, on the back of expanding domestic demand as well as increased activities in the manufacturing sector. Enditem

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