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News Analysis: Little but possible chance for full-scale war between Israel, Hezbollah amid rising border tensions: experts

0 Comment(s)Print E-mail Xinhua, June 21, 2024
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by Dana Halawi

BEIRUT, June 21 (Xinhua) -- The ongoing war of attrition between Israel and Hezbollah has significantly escalated recently while Lebanese experts reported little but a possible chance for a comprehensive war between Israeli forces and the Lebanese military group.

On Tuesday, the Israeli military said it has approved "operational plans" for an offensive against Hezbollah. In response, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah pledged on Wednesday a fight "without limitations" if Israel starts a war with the group.

On Thursday, Hezbollah fired multiple rockets in northern Israel after Israel launched an attack in southern Lebanon, killing a Hezbollah commander earlier in the day.

While recent escalations raised concerns of a full-scale conflict along the Israel-Lebanon border, Lebanese analysts noted that Israel and Hezbollah, with deeper incursions into each other's territories and heightened rhetoric, are mainly trying to deter each other and test their boundaries.

However, they also warned that the possibility of the situation escalating into a full-scale war cannot be ruled out, as the dynamics between the two sides have become increasingly risky.

Refaat Badawi, a political analyst and adviser to former Lebanese Prime Minister Salim al-Hoss, believes that Israel is reluctant to engage in a full-scale war on its northern border with Hezbollah, as it would force Israel to fight on two fronts.

Badawi also pointed out that Hezbollah is capable of mounting a "much stronger resistance" compared to Hamas in Gaza, and the United States is against Israel initiating a full-scale war with the Lebanese Shiite militant group.

Israel and Hezbollah have been engaged in border fighting since Oct. 8, 2023, following the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas on Israel. The confrontation is expanding, with both sides stating they are ready for war.

The United States has called for a cessation of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, advocating for Lebanese residents in the south and Israelis in the north to return to their homes. American special envoy Amos Hochstein visited Israel and Lebanon earlier this week to defuse the situation in southern Lebanon.

Badawi noted that although the possibility of an all-out war remains relatively low, it is still looming on the horizon, suggesting that internal pressure within Israel may prompt its leaders to venture into a larger conflict.

Meanwhile, Adnan Mansour, former Lebanese Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants, told Xinhua that the Israeli government may opt for an all-out war against Lebanon to achieve military gains after more than eight months of offensive in Gaza failed to eliminate Hamas.

Mansour also noted that even though the United States advised Israel against a full-blown conflict with Hezbollah, it will support Israel if it decides to proceed, "just as it does now" in Gaza. Enditem

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