SCIO briefing on China's economic performance in August 2025

National Business Daily:

Based on the performance of the national economy over the past eight months this year, what are the predictions and prospects of the NBS for the future economic outlook? Thank you.

Fu Linghui:

Thank you for your question. Since the beginning of this year, despite the complex and changing external environment, deepening external adverse impacts, weak domestic effective demand, and long-term structural contradictions becoming prominent, China's economy has withstood the pressure and maintained steady growth. This is largely thanks to sustained macro policy efforts and the accelerated development of a unified national market. The main indicators were generally stable in the first eight months, and high-quality development was steadily promoted. Looking ahead, the supporting conditions and basic trend of China's long-term economic improvement have not changed. The macro policies have taken effect and reform and opening- up have continued to deepen.Domestic and international dual circulation have gradually become smooth, these will support the stable operation and positive development of the economy.

First, consumption potential continues to be unleashed. Under the influence of various measures in the special action to boost consumption, market sales have steadily rebounded. The sales of trade-in products have increased, new types of consumption such as livestreaming and instant retail have grown rapidly. Service consumption has continued to expand, holiday travel has increased, and cultural and tourism consumption has increased. The markets for sports events, cinema and performances have been relatively active. In the next stage, with the in-depth implementation of the special action to boost consumption, the trade-in policy for consumer goods will continue to be optimized. Livelihood policies such as childcare subsidies and free preschool education will be gradually implemented, which will help enhance residents' consumption capacity and willingness. The Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays are coming, which will further boost holiday spending, with consumption being expected to continue expanding and upgrading.

Second, new drivers of growth have been cultivated and strengthened. The driving force of innovation continues to strengthen. Technological innovation and industrial innovation continue to integrate. New quality productive forces are being cultivated and strengthened, with new economic growth drivers continuing to emerge. The development of high-end industries is improving. From January to August, the value added of high-tech manufacturing industries above designated size increased by 9.5% year on year, of which the value added of integrated circuit manufacturing and aerospace-related equipment manufacturing increased by 22.3% and 14.6% respectively. Intelligent and green transformation is steadily advancing. From January to August, the output of industrial robots and civilian drones increased by 29.9% and 53.7% respectively. New energy vehicles production increased by 31.4%. Green consumption and new types of consumption are growing rapidly. New business models such as online retail and instant retail are gaining momentum, driving the rapid growth of online retail sales of physical goods. In the next stage, the development potential of emerging fields will continue to be revealed, which will help expand the space for economic development and accelerate the transformation from traditional to new growth drivers.

Third, market vitality has gradually increased. As the construction of a unified national market deepens, efforts to strengthen the domestic circulation have been intensified, the integration of domestic and foreign trade has been accelerated, and unilateral and autonomous opening up has been carried out in an orderly manner, thereby market vitality is being enhanced. From January to July, the profits of manufacturing enterprises above designated size increased by 4.8% year on year; from January to August, the import and export of private enterprises increased by 7.4%. In the August PMI, the business activity expectation index for manufacturing enterprises and services enterprises was 53.7% and 57% respectively, both higher than the previous month. In the next stage, we will further deepen reform and opening up, regulate the disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations, promote capacity governance in key industries, continuously optimize the business environment and promote high-quality development of pilot free trade zones. We will also continue to stimulate the vitality of business entities and enhance development momentum.

Fourth, macro policies have continued to show their effects. Since the beginning of this year, all regions and departments have been fully implementing the decisions and plans of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council and taken effective measures to implement macro policies, promoting stable economic growth. The implementation of major national strategies and building up of security capacity in key areas have achieved remarkable results, and the policies for large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods policies have been implemented in depth. From January to August, the retail sales of household appliances and audiovisual equipment, and communication equipment, supported by consumer goods trade-in policies, increased by 28.4% and 21.1% year on year respectively. In the next stage, with the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, the effectiveness of these policies will be further unleashed, providing strong support for the stable performance of the economy.

In conclusion, although the external environment is complex and challenging, and domestic economic development faces many obstacles, China's economy has a stable foundation, numerous advantages, strong resilience, and great potential. There are many favorable conditions supporting high-quality development, especially with the accelerated cultivation of new growth drivers and the continuous enhancement of market vitality. Coupled with the sustained efforts of macroeconomic policies, the economy is expected to continue its overall stable and steady development trend. Thank you.

Jia Huili:

Today's briefing is hereby concluded. Thank you, Mr. Fu, and thank you to friends from the media. Goodbye, everyone.

Translated and edited by Mi Xingang, Ma Yujia, Xu Kailin, Cui Can, Li Congrong, Xiang Bin, Zhang Rui, Yan Xiaoqing, Wang Qian, Huang Shan, Li Huiru, Huang Shan, Fan Junmei, David Ball, Jay Birbeck and Tudor Bentley Finneran. In case of any discrepancy between the English and Chinese texts, the Chinese version is deemed to prevail.