SCIO briefing on China's economic performance in July 2025

National Business Daily:

What are the characteristics of the consumption data in July? How do you view service consumption in July? What is the outlook for consumption overall? Thank you.

Fu Linghui:

Thank you for your questions. Expanding consumption is an important measure to strengthen domestic circulation and continuously improve people's lives. Since the beginning of this year, various regions and departments have resolutely implemented the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, actively promoted special actions to boost consumption, and intensified and expanded the implementation of the consumer goods trade-in policy. These efforts have helped unleash consumption potential and promoted stable economic performance. Looking at the situation in July, the growth rate of commodity market sales slowed down. In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year on year, which was 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month. However, service market sales remained generally stable. From January to July, service retail sales increased by 5.2%, which was basically the same as that from January to June. If the retail sales of goods and services are combined, preliminary estimates show a year-on-year increase of about 5% from January to July. Overall, a steady upward trend has been maintained since the beginning of the year, indicating that the expansion of consumption is unchanged. Looking at the overall performance of market sales in July, there are several key characteristics. These are as follows:

In terms of goods retail sales, goods related to the trade-in programs and upgraded categories recorded good sales. First, policies to boost consumption have continued to take effect. The enhanced and expanded trade-in programs for consumer goods have continued to demonstrate a driving effect on the sales of related products. In July, the retail sales of household appliances and audiovisual equipment, cultural and office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment in units above designated size increased by 28.7%, 13.8%, 20.6% and 14.9% year on year, respectively, all significantly higher than the growth rate of goods retail sales, continuing to support the growth of goods sales. Second, the retail sales of some upgraded categories of goods have grown rapidly. Consumption upgrades among residents have driven expanded demand for cultural, sports and entertainment goods, boosting the sales growth of related goods. In July, retail sales of sports and entertainment goods, as well as gold, silver and jewelry by units above designated size rose by 13.7% and 8.2% year on year, respectively.

In terms of service retail sales, the retail sales of services related to residents' intellectual and cultural needs have grown rapidly. First, the retail sales of cultural and tourism services have shown sound growth momentum. During the summer, there was a surge in travel demand among residents. Various regions actively developed new models of cultural and tourism consumption, injecting new momentum into expanding consumption with diversified supply. Markets related to sporting events, movies and performances were relatively active, contributing to rapid growth in cultural, tourism and recreational consumption. From January to July, the retail sales of travel consulting rental services, transportation services, and cultural and sports recreation services all maintained double-digit growth. Second, the retail sales of information services have grown rapidly. The demand for services such as digital audiovisual content and online entertainment has continued to expand, contributing to the growth in retail sales of household information services. From January to July, the retail sales of communication and information services grew by more than 10%, which was 0.2 percentage point higher than the growth rate in the first half of the year. Since the beginning of this year, the total business volume of telecommunications services and software business revenue both maintained rapid growth, also reflecting the sound development momentum in the communication and information services sector.

In terms of development trends, online consumption and emerging consumption are developing well. New business models such as online retail and instant retail are convenient and efficient, and have been well-received by consumers. In the first seven months, online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6.3% year on year, which was 0.3 percentage point higher than the growth rate in the first half of this year. New models and forms of consumption, such as livestreaming sales, are becoming increasingly mature. The silver economy and the debut economy are developing rapidly, with new growth drivers for consumption constantly emerging.

Overall, the growth rate of commodity market sales slowed in July, while service retail remained generally stable. Driven by special actions to boost consumption, the trend of expanding consumption has not changed, and new growth drivers for consumption have continued to strengthen. However, it should also be noted that external instabilities and uncertainties are increasing, the consumption capacity and confidence of domestic residents still need to be improved, and the internal driving force for consumption still needs to be strengthened. In the next stage, we will further implement the special actions to boost consumption. While expanding the consumption of goods, we will cultivate new growth areas in service consumption, continuously improve the consumption environment, and promote the stable development of the consumption market. Thank you.