Why the Philippines is Motivated to Push Forward the COC Consultations: Insights from a Filipino Scholar

2026 marks the 5th anniversary of the China-ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and the entry into force of RCEP, a pivotal moment for South China Sea governance and regional cooperation. We interviewed Filipino scholar Lucio Pitlo III, President of the Philippine Association for Chinese Studies and Research Fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation. He shared his insights into the Philippines’ considerations and challenges in advancing the South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC) consultations, analyzed the potential for China-ASEAN cooperation in trade upgrading, green and digital initiatives, global maritime governance, and more, and expounded on the profound significance of connectivity as the core goal of regional maritime cooperation.

Looking towards 2026, what challenges do you foresee for South China Sea regional cooperation？

Pitlo: I think, first of all, there is an expectation that the Code of Conduct (COC) will be concluded. With the Philippines assuming the ASEAN chairmanship, Manila is expected to invest significant attention and resources into this issue and to conclude the COC during its leadership of ASEAN, with collaboration from dialogue partners, including China.

Relations with the claimant states and key coastal countries will be crucial in finalizing the document. Without good, stable relations, it will be challenging to get this document done. Given the nature and significance of the COC, the Philippines is keen to achieve a legally binding and substantive document. However, other states may not be fully supportive of such a document at this stage. So, we will have to wait and see how the situation develops in the coming year.

Stable Relations with Key Coastal States Are Crucial for the Conclusion of COC

What is your view on the progress of the South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC)?

Pitlo: I think many countries, particularly the coastal states in the South China Sea, have been waiting for this document for a long time. They have also invested time in negotiations to make their points.

However, the concern is that under the Philippines' chairmanship, the agenda may be overly focused on maritime issues, especially in pushing for the conclusion of the Code of Conduct (COC). I think there is a risk that if Manila is unable to finalize this document, it could reflect poorly on its leadership. While it is indeed important to conclude the COC, the urgency is heightened by the increasing number of untoward incidents in the South China Sea. The hope is that the frequency of these incidents will be reduced, which creates strong impetus for the Philippines to push for the COC's conclusion.

If the COC is not concluded by 2026, other mechanisms will need to take over. In the absence of the COC, bilateral communication channels and crisis management mechanisms, especially between key coastal states like the Philippines-China and Vietnam-China, will become increasingly important.

The resolution of maritime flash points inevitably takes time. In the interim, effective management of these disputes, preventing escalation, and fostering mutual trust and confidence among the parties are crucial for maintaining stability in the region.

China and ASEAN Need to Keep Driving Trade and Infrastructure

What new opportunities and challenges do you foresee for China-ASEAN regional cooperation？

Pitlo: 2026 marks the 5th anniversary of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between China and ASEAN, as well as the 5th anniversary of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which is currently the world’s largest free trade agreement. In this context, it is crucial that ASEAN and China, as each other's largest trade partner, continue to focus on improving two-way trade, investment, infrastructure, and connectivity.

In the current climate, where there is growing concern about the rise of unilateralism and the erosion of multilateralism, along with the reluctance to use established international trade mechanisms like the World Trade Organization (WTO), the need for ASEAN to maintain and enhance its existing ASEAN+1 FTAs—including those with China, the region's largest trade partner—is more urgent than ever. By doing so, ASEAN can continue to draw China into regional cooperation, not just within bilateral agreements but also within broader regional frameworks.

In terms of specific cooperation, one notable development under Malaysia's chairmanship of ASEAN is the conclusion of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement 3.0 upgrade. However, this upgrade still requires ratification. As the Philippines assumes the ASEAN chairmanship 2026, it will need to emphasize the importance of securing the ratification of this protocol by the 12 parties, which includes the 11 ASEAN member states plus China, through their respective parliaments or legislative bodies in order to ensure the protocol's full implementation.This move presents significant opportunities in areas, such as the green economy, the digital economy, and support for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).

Also, ASEAN will look to China in terms of infrastructure. The Belt and Road Initiative has helped improve public works and transport connectivity, especially between Southeast Asia and China. I think in areas like renewable energy and electric vehicles, where China has already made significant progress, many ASEAN countries will be looking at China for its capacity, investments, and technologies to fast-track their transition to greener, more sustainable forms of fuel. The same applies to the transportation sector.

Moreover, China has made tremendous progress in green energy and is now among the global lead actors in this field. ASEAN countries, especially those exposed to climate change, like the Philippines, would hope to see more support, more investment, and more aid to accelerate their shift to green energy and new energy, reduce dependence on imported fuel, and lower their carbon footprint.

What are the potential areas of cooperation and practical directions for China and ASEAN in global ocean governance and regional cooperation?

Pitlo: These global public goods, such as the promotion of green energy, are areas where China has made significant advances. China is sharing the production of these technologies, maybe even relocate some of the production, for example, in solar and wind energy. Some Chinese investments are moving to produce solar panels in Southeast Asia and beyond, helping to supply the region with green energy solutions. These developments are very helpful, as they enable China to contribute to accelerating the transition to green energy for its neighbors in Southeast Asia. This is a provision of global public goods, alongside the infrastructure development under the Belt and Road Initiative.

The green silk road, digital silk road, and China's investments to improve digital connectivity in Southeast Asia are vital in this regard. With a population of more than 500 million in Southeast Asia, many countries in the region aim to enable more of their people, and their MSMEs (micro, small, and medium enterprises), to access technology and the internet, allowing them to reach larger markets and expand their business reach. Fintech and e-commerce platforms will be instrumental in making this happen.

Additionally, in discussions about establishing norms and rules for emerging technologies like AI and the 4th industrial revolution, China and ASEAN can collaborate to make their voices heard in global rulemaking. This would include the ethics of using these technologies, addressing risks, managing concerns about exposure to these technologies, investing in cyber defense, recognizing cyber risks, and helping one another to tackle these challenges, which creates a strong foundation for cooperation between China and its neighbors in ASEAN.

In your view, what key word or phrase best summarizes the ideal goals of regional maritime cooperation?

Pitlo: Connectivity.

The South China Sea connects Southeast Asia and China. It is not only a critical international waterway, but also carries significant maritime importance. I believe that increased connectivity between the two sides, facilitated by the sea, will result in a win-win situation for both.

On December 18 2025, Hainan implemented its special customs zone. If Hainan can position itself as a gateway, especially linking maritime Southeast Asia with China, I think this will greatly promote better and increased trade.