Will economics end the Iran war?

Washington's illegal war of aggression against Iran may be defeated by, and possibly shortened by, economics. Historically, an air war such as the one the United States and Israel launched against Iran has only strengthened the resistance of an enemy. In Iran's case, this means Tehran will bend every effort to control the Strait of Hormuz and its shipping flow. The world economy will thus be increasingly impacted. The United States economy will not escape as well.

Reporting on the global economic impact of the Iran war has, so far, centered on the flow of hydrocarbons, such as oil and natural gas, through the strait. But other key commodities are involved as well. These commodities are products made from hydrocarbons, such as petrochemicals, and commodities made from other natural resources.

Iran's shutdown of the flow of commodities through the strait reduces its global supply to varying degrees. This, of course, impacts price. This also depends upon the global share of commodities passing through the strait and also upon the supply available from alternative sources. One question then becomes the degree to which alternative sources can increase their own production so as to affect global supply in a meaningful way and thereby affect prices by moderating increases.

One problem for production in the Persian Gulf states is that once a refinery or facility is shut down temporarily it takes time to restart production, perhaps weeks or maybe months. This means the supply shocks to various commodities may last and, over time, thereby place further inflationary pressure on prices. This suggests that the longer the war continues, the stronger its negative influence on the world economy and the longer it will take to recover.

Worsening global economic conditions mean more domestic and international political pressure on Washington to terminate its reckless imperialist war. As the days of war go on, the economic effects of the war will be increasingly felt by global populations. Markets are being destabilized and prices are rising.

This negative situation includes cascading effects of supply chain disruption. Supply chain issues are already taking their toll on local economies. Factories in Asia, for example, are forced to cut or pause production owing to the disappearance of inputs and to evaporating inventories of inputs. Cuts in production, in turn, have further cascading effects on production downstream. All this has an impact on employment and local economies. At scale, there are impacts on national economies.

Let's look at some commodity examples that the ultimate impacts go beyond mere statistical numbers and go directly to the human condition around the world.

The Gulf share of world production of urea is roughly 35 to 45 percent and of ammonia 30 percent. These are used in fertilizer. The planting season has now come to the Northern Hemisphere. Modern agriculture requires such fertilizers, and without them, agricultural production correspondingly declines. This points to less food production, and to scarcity, in the coming months. Prices will rise and public health will be impaired by malnutrition and potentially starvation.

Almost 40 percent of helium comes out of the Gulf. This commodity is used in chip manufacturing as well as in medical imaging. Some 20 percent of sulfur comes out of the Gulf, and it is used in various ways such as fertilizer and is used in mining and metals processing. About 35 percent of methanol comes out of the Gulf, and its uses include fuel, input for basic chemicals, and biodiesel. Polyethylene is also exported, and it is used for packaging and pipes. Polypropylene is yet another export, and it is used in packaging and consumer goods.

Viewing the Iran war from a global economic standpoint makes its devastating consequences to the world, and to humanity, more apparent. More significant are the economic consequences to the aggressors, the United States and Israel, and their participating allies. While the economic pain is barely being felt in the United States, it certainly is in Israel and in the Gulf states given the extent of the devastating Iranian missile and drone strikes.

But America's time will inevitably come. Already, gasoline and diesel prices are rising noticeably across the country and the cost of fertilizers to American farmers is skyrocketing just in time for spring planting. Industrial effects from supply chain disruption of essential imported commodities and inputs will begin to be felt in the coming weeks.

The question then becomes to what extent economic dislocation will be a factor in Washington's war calculus and a factor in forcing an end to this war of aggression. The negative economic impact will drive public opinion further against the war and against Trump and the Republicans. This means that the upcoming midterm elections could result in both the U.S. House and the U.S. Senate shifting to the Democrats. Such a situation would mean that impeachment proceedings would begin immediately in the new Congress in January 2027. Not only would President Trump be a target of the Democrats' ire, but also Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio would be in their crosshairs.

Experts and social media pundits in the United States speculate about the length of the Iran war. Some, particularly military experts, see a long war of several months or longer as a possibility basing their views on strictly technical military considerations. They conclude that, while the U.S. has already "lost" the war from a strategic standpoint, Trump and his sycophants will continue it, and even escalate, regardless of professional military advice.

On the other hand, increasingly negative economic effects on the world economy, and on the U.S. economy in particular, may force war termination sooner rather than later. Another month or two of war will be devastating given the trends that are already apparent.

Washington and Israel must end this war of aggression. The international community must come together to support a new regional security architecture in the Middle East and to bring peace and development to the region.