What to know about targeted strikes on Iran's leadership?

Can Iran's ruling system survive?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, announcing Larijani's death, said Israel was opening the door to what he called a "regime change," a claim he had also made after Ali Khamenei was killed.

U.S. intelligence agencies, however, have reached a more cautious assessment. The Washington Post, citing informed sources, reported that while the strikes have degraded Iran's military capabilities, they have not triggered significant fractures or defections within the ruling system. If anything, the report said, Iran's leadership, backed by IRGC, has hardened its stance toward Washington.

U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard offered a measured assessment at a congressional hearing on Wednesday, stating that the Iranian leadership was "intact" but "largely degraded."

Signals from Tehran suggest the government had anticipated such an onslaught. Iran's Fars News Agency reported Tuesday, citing informed sources, that officials had predesignated between three and seven successors for each key civilian and military post to ensure continuity of core state functions in an emergency.

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi made a similar point more bluntly in an interview with Al Jazeera on Wednesday. The United States and Israel, he said, have yet to grasp that Iran has a "strong political structure with established political, economic, and social institutions," designed to survive leadership shocks.

No single individual is indispensable, he said, adding that even Khamenei's death had not halted the system's functioning and that any vacant post, including that of foreign minister, would eventually be filled.

People attend a funeral held for Iranian high-ranking military commanders killed during strikes launched by the United States and Israel against Iran in Tehran, Iran, March 11, 2026. [Xinhua/Shadati]